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Chart of the Day: Housing Starts Seasonality


Housing starts for August are due to be released tomorrow at 8:30am.   Market expects 550K versus 546K previous.  With the market moving potential of this economic figure, we decided to create a seasonality chart of this indicator using data from the past 50 years.


Initial appearances may conclude that nothing significant can be extracted from what is pictured above.   However, the economic/market lows of March and September/October are still evident amongst the data before market rallies are observed.   A notable surge in housing starts is observed in the data for February as averages indicate a 3% increase in housing starts, compared to the previous month.


Charting the data for the past 50 years and a noticeable top was observed in 2006 before a significant decline occurred to bring us to our present lows for the past 50 years.   Upon a bottom being reached, housing starts have shown an almost immediate rebound over past history, finding support at around 900.   We currently sit at between 500 to 600 with signs of bottoming becoming apparent.


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