Stock Market Outlook for July 29, 2022
Clean energy stocks breaking out, benefitting our model portfolio.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Acceleron Pharma Inc. (NASD:XLRN) Seasonal Chart
RBC Quant Canadian Dividend Leaders ETF (TSE:RCD.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO MSCI USA High Quality Index ETF (TSE:ZUQ.TO) Seasonal Chart
ebix.com, Inc. (NASD:EBIX) Seasonal Chart
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (NASD:HTBI) Seasonal Chart
CBOE Global Markets Inc. (AMEX:CBOE) Seasonal Chart
Humana, Inc. (NYSE:HUM) Seasonal Chart
Sysco Corp. (NYSE:SYY) Seasonal Chart
Garmin Ltd. (NASD:GRMN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks followed through with their post-Fed gains on Thursday, further erasing the sharp declines that were recorded through the middle of June when inflation concerns were all the rage. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by another 1.21%, continuing to move above 50-day moving average support that was tested earlier in the week. The push towards the May high at 4170 is underway, a hurdle that will either make or break the intermediate trend of lower-lows and lower-highs that the benchmark has been in this year. The confirmation of support at the 50-day moving average in recent days suggests that the shift of the intermediate path is already underway, but we will not know definitively until the May/June peak is violated. Momentum indicators are increasingly relinquishing characteristics of a bearish trend with RSI and MACD pushing above their middle lines. Short-term, we are approaching an important hurdle at 4100, representing the target of the previously highlighted trading range breakout and also representing a point of previous support observed in February and again early in June. We would not be surprised to see a pause in the range of 4100 to 4170 before the market regroups for the ultimate push higher into year-end, as per our forecast for the second half of the year.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Clean Energy stocks
- Matching the performance of the market this year to that seen in 1970
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- The rebound of gasoline demand
- Oil and our trade in the commodity market
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 29
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Just released…
Our monthly report for August is out, providing subscribers with everything they need to know for the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of August
- Favor bonds or stocks?
- Average peak to inflationary pressures in the year
- Inflation expectations already in decline
- The shift back towards growth/technology
- Classic leading indication of an economic recession is triggering again
- Trend of high-yield spreads still expressing caution
- Increasing supply-demand mismatch in the housing market threatens to take down prices
- Weakness in some of the most discretionary categories of consumer spending raising concerns as to the health of the consumer
- Waning consumer momentum causing manufacturers to pullback
- Poor manufacturer sentiment
- Transportation metrics remaining some of the most threatening indications that the economy is on the path towards recession
- The end of the Great Resignation
- The trend of COVID cases in the US and the risk later this year
- Moving beyond the weakest first half of the year for stocks since 1970
- Downbeat investor sentiment conducive to a back-half of the year rebound
- Safe-haven sectors showing signs of struggle
- Looking for signs of a shift of trend of those segments of the market that led us lower
- The headwind of the rising US Dollar
- Natural Gas
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of August
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in August
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or via the report archive at the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/
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Upcoming event
Using Seasonality to Determine Where We Are in the Economic Cycle (Recession)? and How to Invest
Saturday, September 17, 2022 | 3:00 pm – 3:45 pm EDT
Some leading indicators are hinting that we are on the path towards an economic recession, traditionally an ideal time to abandon risk in portfolios. Jon Vialoux will show you what he’s looking at and how to best position your portfolio using seasonal analysis.Click on the following registration link to book your FREE spot to our presentation: Register Now
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.94.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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