Stock Market Outlook for September 1, 2022
September is the most volatile month of the year, resulting in an average decline for the S&P 500 Index of 0.6% over the past two decades.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Fidelity Dividend ETF for Rising Rates (AMEX:FDRR) Seasonal Chart
First Trust NASDAQ ABA Community Bank Index Fund (NASD:QABA) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSE:VYM) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Developed All Cap ex North America Index ETF (CAD-hedged) (TSE:VI.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core MSCI EAFE IMI Index ETF (CAD-Hedged) (TSE:XFH.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (AMEX:DJD) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (NYSE:MGV) Seasonal Chart
iShares Morningstar Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:ILCV) Seasonal Chart
SPDR Russell 1000 Low Volatility Focus ETF (AMEX:ONEV) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (AMEX:SPYD) Seasonal Chart
JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) Seasonal Chart
China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd. (NYSE:ZNH) Seasonal Chart
General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) Seasonal Chart
Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSE:DBJP) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks dipped in the final session of August as the giveback of the strength attributed to the summer rally continues. The S&P 500 Index closed down by nearly eight-tenths of one percent, making further progress below support at its 50-day moving average. There are still no signs that the selling momentum is fading with the MACD histogram continuing to expand negatively. This a market that is on edge and until major benchmark make a definitive turn above the June low, thereby carving out a higher intermediate low, a cautious bias in portfolio positioning remains prudent.
Today marks the start of what is traditionally known as the most volatile month of the year for stocks. The S&P 500 Index has lost 0.6%, on average, in the month of September over the past 20 years, but gains have still outnumbered losses with a frequency of positive results at 55%. Returns over this two decade span have ranged from a loss of 11.0% in September of 2002 to a gain of 8.8% in September of 2010. But the more telling metric of how the market acts in this pre-Autumn period is the average tendency of the volatility index (VIX), which rises by 6.7%, on average, in this final month of the quarter. The VIX eventually peaks, on average, early in October, leading to the strongest time of the year for stocks that stretches into May of the following year. We breakdown everything to lookout for in the month ahead in our just released monthly outlook for September. Subscribe now to receive a copy.
Just released…
Our monthly report for September is out, providing you with all of the insight to help you navigate through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of September
- Sentiment and positioning
- High Yield Spreads
- Industrial Production
- Manufacturer sentiment
- Shipping metrics confirming a negative economic backdrop
- The ongoing inventory issue
- The downfall of the housing market
- Falloff of demand for big-ticket items
- The ongoing spread of COVID
- Consumer Prices
- Seasonal play in agriculture stocks
- The second of the weakest two-week spans in the equity market
- Market Breadth
- Failed breakout for bond prices?
- Resumption of the rise in the US Dollar
- Failure of risk to overcome significant hurdles overhead
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of September
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in September
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or via the report archive at https://charts.equityclock.com/
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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for September, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every September over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:
And how about those securities that have never gained in this ninth month of the year, here they are:
*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Monthly look at the S&P 500 Index
- The state of energy inventories and demand in the US
- Canada GDP
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 1
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.
Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.11.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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