Stock Market Outlook for September 12, 2022
The market is providing a number of encouraging signals to suggest that an intermediate-term trend for stocks of higher-highs and higher-lows is underway.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Seasonal Chart
First of Long Island Corp. (NASD:FLIC) Seasonal Chart
SeaChange Intl, Inc. (NASD:SEAC) Seasonal Chart
Illinois Tool Works, Inc. (NYSE:ITW) Seasonal Chart
Ameris Bancorp (NASD:ABCB) Seasonal Chart
Steelcase, Inc. (NYSE:SCS) Seasonal Chart
Fidelity Value Factor ETF (AMEX:FVAL) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Markets jumped on Friday as a reprieve in the strength of the US Dollar and stabilization of treasury yields enticed traders back into stocks. The S&P 500 Index gained 1.53%, moving back above its still rising 50-day moving average and hinting of a higher intermediate-term low above the June bottom. The direction of this variable hurdle is often highly indicative of the direction of the intermediate-term trend and is an important input to the technical prong of our seasonal process. Momentum indicators continue to curl higher with MACD rebounding from levels around its middle line and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from rising trendline support. Both have been trending higher for months, indicative of the waning selling pressures and reflective of a market that is moving beyond the bearish trend that dominated the first half of the year. The declining 200-day moving average at 4275 remains a threatening level overhead and evidence of the shift of the intermediate-term trend to that of higher-highs and higher-lows is likely to put this hurdle to the test.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Finding reason to put our cash hoard back to work
- Yields and the US Dollar
- High Yield spreads
- The rebound of cryptocurrencies
- Japanese equities
- Canada Labour Force Survey
- Investor sentiment
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.96.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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