Stock Market Outlook for December 15, 2022
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Sprott Gold Miners ETF (AMEX:SGDM) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NASD:RING) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Materials ETF (NYSE:MXI) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:MDYG) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (NYSE:SLY) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (NYSE:EZA) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Senior Income Trust (NYSE:VVR) Seasonal Chart
Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE:TD) Seasonal Chart
Cooper Cos. Inc. (NYSE:COO) Seasonal Chart
Lundin Mining Corp. (TSE:LUN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE:KMI) Seasonal Chart
Suncor Energy, Inc. (TSE:SU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF (TSE:VCN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE:J) Seasonal Chart
Imperial Oil Ltd. (AMEX:IMO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks waivered on Wednesday as traders digested the latest FOMC announcement, which revealed a 50 basis point increase to the Fed’s key lending rate. The S&P 500 Index closed down by just over six-tenths of one percent, continuing to show struggle at declining trendline resistance that hovers around 4050. Horizontal support at 3900 remains firm and, as we have highlighted in recent reports, a break, one way or the other, will be realized before the year is through. Seasonality gives that bias to an upside move, but the technicals are highlighting that anything is possible as resistance is contended with. The breakout of the horizontal range between 3900 and 4100 has a 200-point upside or downside target and we still have to give the upside the benefit of the doubt amidst the period of seasonal strength ahead. One thing that is readily apparent by this recent bear market rally is the lack of urgency to sell at the near-term peak, as was apparent following the rebound rallies recorded in March, May, and August. This may frustrate the bears that have been betting on a repeat of the same rejection from the level of declining resistance that has been observed a few times this year. The 50-day moving average is still pointed higher, providing a point of support below for the intermediate-term trend. The uncertainty that has resulted from the CPI report and the FOMC announcement this week may delay the start of the Santa Claus rally period, assuming year-end portfolio reallocations were deferred until clarity from these events was provided. However, once these transactions are complete, the market has clear air until the new year, barring some shock to the contrary, of course.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Slide deck from our presentation to the Canadian Association of Technical Analysts December meeting
- Canada Manufacturing Sales
- US Petroleum Inventories and the state of demand
- Investor Sentiment
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for December 15
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended overly bearish at 1.34.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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