Stock Market Outlook for December 23, 2022
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Asia 50 ETF (NASD:AIA) Seasonal Chart
BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (NYSE:BGR) Seasonal Chart
Global X NASDAQ China Technology ETF (AMEX:CHIC) Seasonal Chart
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) Seasonal Chart
John Hancock Hedged Equity & Income Fund (NYSE:HEQ) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF (NYSE:THD) Seasonal Chart
Sprott Inc. (NYSE:SII) Seasonal Chart
iShares Silver Bullion ETF (TSE:SVR/C.TO) Seasonal Chart
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASD:GILD) Seasonal Chart
New Gold Inc. (TSE:NGD.TO) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (NYSE:DFJ) Seasonal Chart
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The grinches appear to be interjecting with the traditional holiday positivity that surrounds this time of year, sending stocks sharply lower during the Thursday session. The S&P 500 Index closed with a loss of 1.45%, erasing the prior days gains and confirming the recently broken 50-day moving average and previous horizontal support at 3900 as a point of resistance. The more formidable threat remains long-term declining trendline resistance overhead, just above 4000, which has capped each rally attempt this year and continues to show signs of doing so again following the October/November strength. The technicals certainly appear threatening and there is very little on the fundamental side that we can point to as reason to be optimistic, other than the fact that our coincident indication of economic activity has yet to trigger a recession call, yet. Still, at this time of year, it is often a fools errand to bet against the market during the weeks that surround the end of year holidays given the positivity that typically gives reprieve to selling pressures, even during the most negative years (eg. 2001, 2002, and 2009). A long lower-wick candlestick charted during the Thursday session and indications of short-term waning downside momentum provides hints that the bearish conviction heading into the holidays is not as strong as what sentiment suggests, which could still allow for that end of year lift in equity prices. November’s upside gap between 3770 and 3860 continues to be viewed as the logical zone to support this end of year gyration.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Extreme bearish sentiment in the market
- Our next prediction of what to expect of the market in the year ahead
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- The state of petroleum supply and demand in the US
- Natural gas stockpiles and our trade in the commodity that is up almost 50% in just the past few days
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for December 23
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.26.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings scheduled for today
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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