Stock Market Outlook for January 20, 2023
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Dynamic iShares Active Canadian Dividend ETF (TSE:DXC.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Select Dividend ETF (NASD:DVY) Seasonal Chart
BlackRock Science and Technology Trust (NYSE:BST) Seasonal Chart
EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT) Seasonal Chart
Radiant Logistics Inc. (AMEX:RLGT) Seasonal Chart
Wolverine World Wide Inc. (NYSE:WWW) Seasonal Chart
Meritage Homes Corp. (NYSE:MTH) Seasonal Chart
Kilroy Realty Corp. (NYSE:KRC) Seasonal Chart
Ventas, Inc. (NYSE:VTR) Seasonal Chart
CSX Corp. (NASD:CSX) Seasonal Chart
PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) Seasonal Chart
Myers Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MYE) Seasonal Chart
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASD:RRGB) Seasonal Chart
Invesco DB Energy Fund (NYSE:DBE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks struggled on Thursday as investors continue to debate the prospect that the Fed may overtighten, sending the economy into a sharper downturn than what would have been expected otherwise. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by three-quarters of one percent, continuing to peel back from declining trendline resistance at 4000. The benchmark moved back below its 50-day moving average at 3925 and is now testing support at its rising 20-day moving average at 3882. As highlighted in out last report, while the rejection from declining trendline resistance is providing reason for heightened caution, it would take a weekly close below 3877 to flip our Neutral rating that we have held of the benchmark through the fourth quarter back to Avoid in order to respect the strains against domestic equities that seems relentless. Momentum indicators continue to show signs of rolling over with RSI fading at declining trendline resistance and MACD hinting that a MACD bearish crossover may be imminent. A definitive break of support at 3800 would renew the prevailing trend of lower-lows and lower-highs, setting a path back to the lows of October (and potentially below if a recessionary backdrop materializes in the months ahead).
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Breadth indicators have yet to cross the threshold to suggest that we are back to a sustainable rising trend in the domestic equity market
- US Housing Starts and the seasonal trade in the homebuilders
- Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- US Petroleum Status and the implications for the price of oil and the stocks of the producers
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for January 20
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.99.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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