Stock Market Outlook for January 30, 2023
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Electronic Arts, Inc. (NASD:EA) Seasonal Chart
Expeditors Intl of Washington, Inc. (NASD:EXPD) Seasonal Chart
Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASD:AZPN) Seasonal Chart
Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) Seasonal Chart
CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (AMEX:EQAL) Seasonal Chart
VMware Inc. (NYSE:VMW) Seasonal Chart
TETRA Technologies (NYSE:TTI) Seasonal Chart
Chart Industries Inc. (NYSE:GTLS) Seasonal Chart
Nordson Corp. (NASD:NDSN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks ended with gains to close the week as investors that have been betting on a downside move in the market continue to re-trench and neutralize negative bets. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of a quarter of one percent, increasingly moving above long-term declining declining trendline resistance that had capped the benchmark over the past year. It is now reaching back to December’s double-top resistance at 4100, the final line in the sand that is keeping the path of lower-highs intact. The 50-day moving average, indicative of the path of the intermediate-term trend, remains on the rise and appears poised to intersect with the 200-day moving average in the days ahead. It was back on March 14th of last year that the intermediate moving average crossed below its longer-term counterpart, an event, while foretelling of the longer-term declining path to come, triggered a swift 10% rise in prices through the back half of March before the more dominant path of lower-lows and lower-highs took hold in the month of April. The timeliness of moving average crossovers as buy or sell signals immediately following the result will forever remain questionable, but they can provide valuable insight on where the momentum in the market is and whether we should be prepared to be bullish or bearish on stocks for the intermediate timeframe that our strategy caters towards. For now, a neutral bias of domestic equities remains warranted as we wait for evidence of something sustainable to trade off of, whether on the positive or negative side.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark and potential risk-reward levels
- US Dollar Index
- “As goes January, so goes the year” theory
- Consumer and business loan growth in 2022
- The change in margin debt and credit balances in investor accounts
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Soon to be released…
We are busy placing the finishing touches on our Monthly Outlook for February, highlighting everything that you need to know for the month(s) ahead. Subscribers can lookout for this report in their inbox in the days ahead.
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Mission Accomplished
January is always a busy month for us given all the of the updates that are required for our seasonal research, available via the chart database at https://charts.equityclock.com/. Our charts were updated just a few days into the new year, but our seasonal test that derives our optimal holding periods is a much more demanding process that takes many weeks to complete given the exhaustive nature of the study by testing each and every date combination to find periods of defined historical buying demand. We are pleased to announce that this process has been completed and the results have been uploaded to the database for your reference. Annual subscribers can also download the spreadsheet (https://charts.equityclock.com/download) that includes all of these results, providing a unique way to filter the data and perform your own queries right from your desktop. This exhaustive research is alone well worth the value of an annual subscription, however, if you are a monthly subscriber and have been with us for over a year, feel free to reach out to us to request access to this spreadsheet as well. Enjoy!
Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.83.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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