Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for March 9, 2023

The second smallest percentage increase in job openings for January since 2009 and the largest increase on record for layoffs does not exactly portray a strong labor market.

    *** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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SM Energy Co. (NYSE:SM) Seasonal Chart

Crescent Point Energy Corp. (NYSE:CPG) Seasonal Chart

BRP Inc. (NASD:DOOO) Seasonal Chart

Installed Building Products Inc. (NYSE:IBP) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF (AMEX:SPGP) Seasonal Chart

Reaves Utility Income Trust (AMEX:UTG) Seasonal Chart

Ovintiv Inc (TSE:OVV.TO) Seasonal Chart

   

The Markets

Stocks closed slightly higher on Wednesday as the market tried to gain a footing following Tuesday’s selloff attributed to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  The S&P 500 ended with a gain of just over a tenth of one percent, holding around its rising 50-day moving average that the benchmark has been consolidating around in recent days.  Short-term resistance remains apparent at the declining 20-day moving average at 4040, while support remains resilient around a confluence of major moving averages in the range between 3900 and 4000.  Barring a renewed push to the downside, MACD still appears poised to chart a bullish crossover of its signal line in the days ahead, an event that, if realized, would provide a renewed buy signal following February’s pullback.  Seasonally, the period between now and the end of April is traditionally positive for stocks and it would take a significant negative catalyst to chart a path that deviates from this norm.  The multi-week positive timeframe that effectively peaks around the Investment Retirement Account contribution deadline in April caps what is traditionally viewed as the best six months of the year that started in October.  While the market is certainly on high alert over what the results of major economic reports may reveal in the days ahead, you typically need good reason to be bearish of stocks over the next six to eight weeks. We can certainly point to a number of leading indicators that lend themselves to caution over the longer term, but coincident indicators have yet to provide sufficient near-term warning to suggest not pursuing risk on the long side through the month of April (see our Market Outlook for March 6th for further insight).

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Weekly US Petroleum Status and the price of Oil
• January’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.99.   Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:  

S&P 500 Index

 

TSE Composite

 

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