Stock Market Outlook for July 17, 2023
Shipping expenditures have fallen by the most on record through the first half of the year, a testament to the slowing business and consumer economies.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Financials ETF (NYSE:IXG) Seasonal Chart
SPDR Barclays Convertible Securities ETF (NYSE:CWB) Seasonal Chart
Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE:RF) Seasonal Chart
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASD:TTWO) Seasonal Chart
Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (NYSE:DBP) Seasonal Chart
Autodesk, Inc. (NASD:ADSK) Seasonal Chart
Aptiv Plc (NYSE:APTV) Seasonal Chart
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASD:URBN) Seasonal Chart
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE:SWK) Seasonal Chart
Lowes Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed marginally lower on Friday as early hints that the summer rally period may be starting to lose steam emerges as we approach the average peak on the 17th of July. The S&P 500 Index closed down by one-tenth of one percent, realizing a reversal session as early day strength had traders booking profits. Support remains firm at the rising 20-day moving average, now at 4415, and the fanning out of major moving averages continues to present a bullish viewpoint from an intermediate-term perspective given the number of levels of support that are presented below. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to border on overbought territory. While this stretched state could exhaust buying demand in the short-term, the overbought condition is yet another trait of a market that is within a bullish trend. The struggling state of the macro-economic fundamentals leaves us less inclined to chase overbought extremes and, rather, wait for pullbacks towards levels of support in order to pursue seasonal and technical trades as part of the summer rally and other third quarter buying patterns. Seasonally, strength in the broader market can persist throughout the entire month of July, but the strongest of the mid-year rally reaches a peak on the July 17th, on average. Investors must be prepared to book profits in seasonal summer rally trades through the remainder of the month given the elevated probability of a pullback through August and September, as per seasonal norms.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Credit Spreads
- Canada Manufacturing Sales and the areas of strength that warrant exposure in seasonal portfolios
- The poor state of shipping activity in the economy
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 17
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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