Stock Market Outlook for August 14, 2023
Treasury yield spreads are showing indications that they have bottomed and the path towards normalization may be underway.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Mativ Holdings Inc. (NYSE:MATV) Seasonal Chart
iShares Interest Rate Hedged Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (AMEX:IGBH) Seasonal Chart
Azenta, Inc. (NASD:AZTA) Seasonal Chart
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) Seasonal Chart
ViaSat, Inc. (NASD:VSAT) Seasonal Chart
Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:LBAI) Seasonal Chart
Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. (NASD:BGFV) Seasonal Chart
Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (AMEX:XYLD) Seasonal Chart
Standex Intl Corp. (NYSE:SXI) Seasonal Chart
Kennametal, Inc. (NYSE:KMT) Seasonal Chart
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE:BZH) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed around the flat-line for a second day on Friday as ongoing weakness in the formerly beloved technology sector was offset by continued strength in energy and core-defensives (staples, health care, utilities, and REITs). The S&P 500 Index closed with a loss of just over a tenth of one percent, finding support around the 50-day moving average that was tested around the lows of the session. Resistance has been defined at the now declining 20-day moving average, providing a hurdle to shoot sell orders off of as part of this normal period of volatility/weakness that spans the months of August and September. Remember, levels down to the June breakout point at 4200 are fair game as part of this period of seasonal weakness, allowing the positive intermediate path to remain intact and potentially providing another buying opportunity for the best six months of the year for stocks that starts in October.
Today, in our Market Outlook to Subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The path of Net Assets on the Fed’s balance sheet
- Treasury yield spreads have stopped declining and the implications for stocks
- Examining the possibility of a significant double-top for the market’s largest constituent, Technology
- Producer Price Index and the fact that inflation gauges are not reflecting the spike in gas prices since the end of June
- Materials
- Core-defensive sectors
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for August 14
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.02.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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