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Are you Bullish or Bearish going into Friday’s Employment Report?


Markets traded within a very narrow range today as investors await the crucial employment report to be released on Friday before the market open.   Market sentiment according to options volumes is also relatively neutral, with approximately the equivalent number of puts trading hands as there were calls.   Expectation remains that 500,000 jobs will have been created in May.

A few quick facts about market performance on the day of employment report releases:

  • Averaging the returns of the S&P 500 index over the past 10 years for the day of the report release and a loss of 0.09% is revealed,  gaining in 51.35% of sessions
  • Average performance during May reports is a loss of 0.33%, losing in 5 of the last 9 periods
  • When expectations are exceeded by more than 50,000 jobs above analysts expectations,  losses continued at an average of 0.50%, negative in 8 of the last 13 periods that saw this scenario
  • When expectations are missed by more than 50,000 jobs below analysts expectations, losses averaged 0.37%, negative in 12 of the last 19 periods that saw this scenario

So are you bullish or bearish entering Friday’s trading session?


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