Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for January 4, 2021

Over the past two decades, the S&P 500 Index has lost 0.3%, on average, in the first month of the year with the frequency of gains and losses equally split.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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ITT Inc. (NYSE:ITT) Seasonal Chart

Smith AO Corp. (NYSE:AOS) Seasonal Chart

Philip Morris Intl Inc. (NYSE:PM) Seasonal Chart

Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (NYSE:TCI) Seasonal Chart

iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF (NYSE:IYY) Seasonal Chart

Waterloo Brewing Ltd. (TSE:WBR.TO) Seasonal Chart

Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NASD:BBBY) Seasonal Chart

Riocan Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:REI/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Stericycle, Inc. (NASD:SRCL) Seasonal Chart

Domino’s Pizza Group LTD (NYSE:DPZ) Seasonal Chart

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:VIPS) Seasonal Chart

Globus Medical, Inc. (NYSE:GMED) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility Index ETF (TSE:ULV-F.TO) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:VCR) Seasonal Chart

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Happy New Year!  First off, we want to wish everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year.  Your ongoing support means so much to us and we will continue to be there to support you as we navigate what could be another uncertain market in 2021.

Stocks closed firmly higher in the last session of 2020 as portfolio managers conducted their final trades of the year.  The S&P 500 Index gained almost two-thirds of one percent, charting a fresh all-time closing high.  The benchmark is now a mere one percent away from our upside target of 3800 to be achieved by the start of the new year as the Santa Rally period peaks.  Should historical norms hold true, this could be achieved in the first couple of sessions of the new year as Santa Claus finishes his rounds before heading home.  Support remains apparent around the rising 20-day moving average, although intermediate downside risks remain towards the rising 50-day moving average at 3585.  So far, Santa has delivered as promised and we will be watching to see if he can go that last mile to deliver in the first couple of sessions of the new year; as of present, there is no reason to suggest he won’t.

For the month ahead,  January has been a rather weak month for market performance over the past 20 years with the S&P 500 Index averaging a loss of 0.3%.  Only 50% of Januarys over the past two decades have shown positive results.  The first couple of months of the year tend to see significantly softer equity performance than the two months that have just past as the holiday catalyst moves into the rear-view mirror and investors position for the year ahead.  Looking for ideas on how to position?  Our monthly report for January breaks down what to expect in the month(s) ahead and how to take advantage.  Subscribe now.

Just released…

We have just sent out our extensive monthly report for January covering what to expect and how to position for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

• Equity market tendencies in the month of January
• Weakest November print for retail sales since the recession
• Tracking the spread of the coronavirus
• Uptick in jobless claims
• The uptick in volatility at the start of the new year
• Upbeat manufacturing sentiment
• Gold
• Global Markets
• Emerging markets
• US Dollar
• The impact of the election cycle on the equity market in the year ahead
• The technical status of the S&P 500 Index
• Positioning for the months ahead
• Sector reviews and ratings
• Notable stocks and ETFs entering their period of strength in January
• Plus, forecasts and expectations through the months ahead and for the year overall.

Subscribe now and we’ll send you this 98-page report.

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

• No significant earnings scheduled for today

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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