Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for January 25, 2021

Oil inventories unexpectedly jumped last week, but it is the metrics on gasoline demand that has our focus.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Crane Co. (NYSE:CR) Seasonal Chart

Idex Corp. (NYSE:IEX) Seasonal Chart

Harsco Corp. (NYSE:HSC) Seasonal Chart

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASD:LGND) Seasonal Chart

Teekay Corp. (NYSE:TK) Seasonal Chart

Cinedigm Digital Cinema Corp. (NASD:CIDM) Seasonal Chart

Century Communities, Inc. (NYSE:CCS) Seasonal Chart

Greenbrier Cos, Inc. (NYSE:GBX) Seasonal Chart

Celsius Holdings Inc. (NASD:CELH) Seasonal Chart

GoldMoney Inc. (TSE:XAU.TO) Seasonal Chart

Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:DBO) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI USA ESG Select ETF (AMEX:SUSA) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed mildly lower on Friday as investors took a breather following another record breaking week for major equity benchmarks.  The S&P 500 Index fell by three-tenths of one percent, weighed down by core cyclical areas of the market, including energy, financials, industrials and materials.  Utilities and REITs, two interest rate sensitive segments, managed to buck the selling pressures on the day, supported by the decline in the cost of borrowing.  The large-cap benchmark remains supported over the short-term at its rising 20-day moving average, while intermediate downside risks remain to the rising 50-day.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Examination of the short and long-term limits of the rising trend for the S&P 500 Index
• Oil and Gas Inventories
• The price of Oil and the Energy Sector
• Natural Gas
• Existing Home Sales in the US and how to gain exposure to the fundamental trend

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A couple of days delayed due to the holiday in the US on Monday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its status of petroleum inventories for the week just past.  The EIA indicated that oil inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels last week, which is a divergence compared to the 1.2 million barrel drawdown that was expected by analysts.  Gasoline stockpiles, meanwhile, declined by 259,000 barrels.  The result saw the days of supply of both oil and gas decline by one-tenth of a day to 33.5 and 31.4, respectively.  The average days of supply for each through the middle of January is 22.1 for oil and 26.3 for gasoline.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday, including our new stance in the sector.  Subscribe now.

On the economic front, a report on existing home sales in the US was released during the Friday session.  The headline print of December’s report indicates that activity increased by 0.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.76 million.  Analysts were expecting a decline of 2.4% to 6.55 million.  The year-over- year change sits higher by 22.2%.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, existing home sales actually jumped by 8.9% in December versus the month prior, which is more than double the 4.0% rise that is average for this time of year.  For the year overall, existing home sales increased 23.7%, which is the best annual performance that we have on record.  The average annual change is 0.3%.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Subscribe now to see how to take advantage of the fundamental trends in this industry.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.63. 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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