Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for February 17, 2021

Bond ETFs have become significantly oversold, making them ripe for a short-term bounce.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:UBT) Seasonal Chart

Royce Global Value Trust, Inc. (NYSE:RGT) Seasonal Chart

CoreSite Realty Corp. (NYSE:COR) Seasonal Chart

West Pharmaceutical Services (NYSE:WST) Seasonal Chart

Barnes Group, Inc. (NYSE:B) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Fundamental High Yield Corporate Bond Index ETF (TSE:PFH/F.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Canadian HYBrid Corporate Bond Index ETF (TSE:XHB.TO) Seasonal Chart

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global Real Estate Index ETF (TSE:CGR.TO) Seasonal Chart

PIMCO Global Income Opportunities Fund (TSE:PGI/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Core High Quality Canadian Bond Index ETF (TSE:XQB.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO Mid Federal Bond Index ETF (TSE:ZFM.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO Long Corporate Bond Index ETF (TSE:ZLC.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO Real Return Bond Index ETF (TSE:ZRR.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (NYSE:AOR) Seasonal Chart

QuantShares U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund (NYSE:BTAL) Seasonal Chart

Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF (NYSE:DBEF) Seasonal Chart

SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:JNK) Seasonal Chart

QuantShares U.S. Market Neutral Momentum Fund (NYSE:MOM) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Government Bond ETF (NASD:VGIT) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Utilities ETF (NYSE:VPU) Seasonal Chart

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE:ZROZ) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed mixed to start the holiday shortened week as investors monitored the rise of interest rates along with strength in the price of oil following a winter storm that hit various parts of the US and Canada.  The S&P 500 Index shed a mere six basis points (0.06%), remaining pinned to record high territory thanks to strength in the financial and energy sectors.  Intermediate support remains solid at the 50-day moving average, while the 20-day moving average at 3850 is providing a level for short-term traders to shoot off of.  The eerie calm of the market and lack of any perceivable threats has one investment house questioning if this is the point to sell.  “The only reason to be bearish is … there is no reason to be bearish,” Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients.  The risk-reward of the market is certainly skewed at present levels with the recovery potential and lack of threats priced into the market.  The only thing left to shock investors would be a negative event.  Unfortunately, we don’t know exactly what or when that may be.  However, we can follow how the data comes in and compare it to seasonal norms within our model in order to provide a binary answer of whether it is prudent to be risk-on or risk-off.

Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell?  Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market.  Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.

• Currencies
• Cryptocurrencies
• Commodities
• Major Benchmarks
• Sub-sectors / Industries

Subscribe now.

 

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Comparing the current trend of COVID cases to the seasonal average trend for respiratory illnesses
• Average tendency for the S&P 500 Index through the back half of February
• Bond funds seeing their optimal buy date of today
• The oversold state of treasury bond ETFs
• Canada Manufacturing Sales and the current state of manufacturer sentiment
• The breakout in the energy sector

Subscribe now and we’ll send this outlook to you.

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.77

 

 

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

Sponsored By...