Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for March 1, 2021

S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.5% in March over the past 20 years with a frequency of gains just slightly better than the flip of a coin at 55%.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Polaris Inds, Inc. (NYSE:PII) Seasonal Chart

DHI Group, Inc. (NYSE:DHX) Seasonal Chart

Sanofi SA (NASD:SNY) Seasonal Chart

Celestica, Inc. (NYSE:CLS) Seasonal Chart

Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM) Seasonal Chart

Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE:DGX) Seasonal Chart

Primo Water Corporation (NYSE:PRMW) Seasonal Chart

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASD:CDNS) Seasonal Chart

PHX Minerals Inc. (NYSE:PHX) Seasonal Chart

Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (TSE:HHL.TO) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks had a rocky outing on Friday as investors remained skittish following Thursday’s shakeout.  The S&P 500 Index closed down by nearly half of one percent, ending the session close to intermediate support at the 50-day moving average.  Momentum indicators remain on the decline following resent sell signals.  While the bulls stand their ground at the 50-day, we must emphasize that levels down to previous horizontal resistance at 3550 remain fair game in order to wash out euphoric sentiment and reinvigorate buying demand.  This is still a buy-the-dip market and any weakness through the remainder of the first quarter is welcomed as an opportunity to buy.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• What the technicals of the S&P 500 Index have to say via a monthly look
• Average tendency for stocks in March
• The role of margin debt and credit balances on market activity
• The breadth of the market and what it has to say about how to position in risk assets

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For the month ahead, March has typically been an upbeat month for stocks with returns for the S&P 500 Index averaging a gain of 0.5% over the past two decades.  The frequency of gains for the month stands at 55%.  This is the last month of the quarter and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing tends to be a dominant driver of activity.  Seasonal weakness that spans the first two months of the year has historically led to strength in this final month of the period as investors rebalance towards risk assets.  With stocks stronger through this historically weaker timeframe, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the quarter-end rebalance will have an opposite impact compared to what is average in this third month of the year.  Read more in our monthly report for March.

Just released…

Our 90-page monthly report breaks down how you should position for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

• Equity market tendencies in the month of March
• The round-trip in credit conditions
• What a third wave would mean
• Inflationary pressures entails exposure to commodities
• Bonds
• REITs
• Canadian Dollar
• Energy Sector
• Value over Growth
• Global Equities
• China
• Natural Gas
• The technical status of the S&P 500 Index
• Positioning for the months ahead
• Sector reviews and ratings
• Stocks that have frequently gained in the month of March
• Notable stocks and ETFs entering their period of strength in March

Subscribe now and we’ll send this report to you.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.92.

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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