Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for March 18, 2021

Our portfolio just received another boost as a result of today’s jump in the home building stocks, but our upside target is closing in fast.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Seasonal Chart

DTE Energy Co. (NYSE:DTE) Seasonal Chart

ONEX Corp. (TSE:ONEX.TO) Seasonal Chart

Suburban Propane Partners LP (NYSE:SPH) Seasonal Chart

Alliance Data Systems (NYSE:ADS) Seasonal Chart

Oneok, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) Seasonal Chart

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASD:ULTA) Seasonal Chart

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:CRR/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

NuVasive, Inc. (NASD:NUVA) Seasonal Chart

Conn’s, Inc. (NASD:CONN) Seasonal Chart

Dillards, Inc. (NYSE:DDT) Seasonal Chart

Summit Hotel Properties Inc. (NYSE:INN) Seasonal Chart

Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASD:CZR) Seasonal Chart

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASD:FANG) Seasonal Chart

BRP Inc. (NASD:DOOO) Seasonal Chart

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE:QSR) Seasonal Chart

Blue Bird Corp. (NASD:BLBD) Seasonal Chart

iShares S&P/TSX North American Preferred Stock Index ETF (CAD-Hedged) (TSE:XPF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Global X SuperDividend US ETF (AMEX:DIV) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (AMEX:EQAL) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers ETF (AMEX:FILL) Seasonal Chart

First Trust S&P REIT Index Fund (NYSE:FRI) Seasonal Chart

iShares Micro-Cap ETF (NYSE:IWC) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Global Listed Private Equity ETF (NYSE:PEX) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global REIT ETF (AMEX:REET) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Growth ETF (NYSE:RZG) Seasonal Chart

Nuveen S&P 500 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (NYSE:SPXX) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF (AMEX:VEGI) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks managed to close with a gain on Wednesday as investors reacted to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated the Fed’s commitment to its easy money policy for the foreseeable future.  The S&P 500 Index ended higher by almost three-tenths of one percent, realizing a new record closing high.  The level of the benchmark and momentum indicators continue to show short-term signs of stalling as the negative divergences with respect to MACD and RSI continue to evolve, a characteristic of waning buying demand.  If we are to speculate, the important psychological level at 4000 is likely to be significant to the market, leading to a period of digestion slightly above the round hurdle.  There is a good chance that the market achieves levels above 4000 into the month of April before stocks consolidate on an intermediate scale into the back half of spring.  Of course, this is just speculation at present and we’ll let the data be our guide.  Downside risks over the short-term remain to previous resistance at 3550 and the potential impact from quarter-end mean reversion threatens to be significant.  There is just a couple of weeks left in this end of quarter phenomena, but, aside from some hints of this shift in the Tuesday session, we have yet to see the big quarterly rebalance sustain itself.  We continue to look for opportunities to ramp up risk ahead of the start of April, but, given that we are fully invested in equities, we can remain content with our present risk metrics should we not obtain the opportunity that we desire before quarter-end.  Time will tell.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• The Telecommunication sector
• US Petroleum Status and our view of the energy sector
• US Housing Starts and home building stocks
• Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and what is moving the aggregate result

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.73.

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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