Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for April 5, 2021

Job growth for March is expected to be exceptional, keeping the above average change to payrolls intact.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Liquidity Services Inc. (NASD:LQDT) Seasonal Chart

Schmitt Industries, Inc. (NASD:SMIT) Seasonal Chart

Eaton Vance Tax Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE:ETV) Seasonal Chart

AmerisourceBergen Corp. (NYSE:ABC) Seasonal Chart

Herman Miller, Inc. (NASD:MLHR) Seasonal Chart

FS Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:FSBW) Seasonal Chart

Baker Hughes Company (NYSE:BKR) Seasonal Chart

GoPro, Inc. (NASD:GPRO) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF (AMEX:XMVM) Seasonal Chart

American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) Seasonal Chart

Capital One Fncl Corp. (NYSE:COF) Seasonal Chart

M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE:MTB) Seasonal Chart

Illumina, Inc. (NASD:ILMN) Seasonal Chart

Facebook, Inc. (NASD:FB) Seasonal Chart

BRP Inc. (TSE:DOO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Global X MSCI Greece ETF (AMEX:GREK) Seasonal Chart

Global X Guru Index ETF (AMEX:GURU) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:SLYG) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE:SPYG) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks jumped to start the new month and new quarter as the typical inflows to start the period gave the market the juice it needed to push to another all-time high.  The S&P 500 Index added 1.18%, finally closing above the psychologically important 4,000 level that had been eyed in recent days.  Support remains below at rising 20 and 50-day moving averages and momentum indicators are back on an upswing, starting to crack the negative divergences that had plagued the benchmark for the past few months.  MACD and RSI continue to hold above their middle lines, showing gyrations that are characteristic of a bullish trend.  Just one day into the new month, the benchmark is half way there to its average return for the month of April, typically a strong period for stocks.  We break it all down in our monthly report that was released to subscribers on Wednesday.  Subscribe now.

Just Released…

Our monthly report for April has now been released, providing you with insight on how to position for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

• Equity market tendencies in the month of April
• Elevated levels of concern
• Tracking the trend in COVID cases compared to the seasonal norm
• Manufacturer Euphoria
• Copper
• Welcome to construction season
• How to defend your portfolio this summer
• Spring is the time for real estate
• Telecommunications sector
• Looking out over the horizon at the flipside to this pro-cyclical shift
• Time to take a position in the bond market?
• Europe
• Emerging Markets
• Break of the trend of underperformance in Canadian equities
• April’s currency tailwind
• The technical status of the S&P 500 Index
• Positioning for the months ahead
• Sector reviews and ratings
• Stocks that have frequently gained in the month of April
• Notable stocks and ETFs entering their period of strength in April

Subscribe now and we’ll send this 92-page report to you.

 

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Why the market performance on Thursday may not have been as bullish as what it appeared on the surface
• Weekly jobless claims and what they have to say about how the economic recovery is progressing
• Looking ahead to the March payroll report
• Construction spending in the US and how to take advantage of the trends

Subscribe now and we’ll send this outlook to you.

Today is payroll report Friday.  The consensus is that March’s Nonfarm payroll report will show an increase of 625,000, a notable jump from the increase of 379,000 reported for February.  Stripping out the adjustments, payrolls have been unchanged, on average, in the month of April over the past 20 years, although the large drawdown in payrolls in April of last year has significantly skewed this statistic.  Typically, the spring month is a positive period for payrolls as employees are hired ahead of the spring and summer.  There is no reason to suspect Friday’s report to show anything other than exceptional strength, keeping the year-to-date change elevated above the seasonal norm.  The premise of our strategy is simple: when data comes in better than seasonal norms, reason to bullish of risk assets exists.  Even with stocks at these heights, it would be inappropriate to suggest anything other than a bullish bias over the intermediate term until the momentum in the economy starts to fade or another catalyst that would derail the economy and the market from seasonal norms, such as what was observed last February and March, becomes apparent.  Given that Friday is a holiday, we will release our breakdown of the results of the payroll report to subscribers at the start of next week.  Subscribe now to receive this report.

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.72.

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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