Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for May 10, 2021

Forget about what analysts think that employment growth should have been and instead focus on the actual trends in the labor market. 

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE:VGR) Seasonal Chart

Inter Pipeline Ltd. (TSE:IPL.TO) Seasonal Chart

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (NYSE:TPVG) Seasonal Chart

Eversource Energy (NYSE:ES) Seasonal Chart

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASD:ISRG) Seasonal Chart

Seabridge Gold Inc. (TSE:SEA.TO) Seasonal Chart

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT) Seasonal Chart

Novavax, Inc. (NASD:NVAX) Seasonal Chart

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (NYSE:CEQP) Seasonal Chart

Bank Of Montreal (NYSE:BMO) Seasonal Chart

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (NYSE:FSM) Seasonal Chart

Orla Mining Ltd. (TSE:OLA.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares India 50 ETF (NASD:INDY) Seasonal Chart

Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks gained in the final trading session of the week following the biggest payroll miss versus estimates on record.  The S&P 500 Index gained three-quarters of one percent, bouncing from short-term support at its 20-day moving average and reaching back towards trend-channel resistance that hovers just above 4,250.  The lower limit of the rising span is now around 4,050.  Momentum indicators are pulling out of the slump that led to the sell signal with respect to MACD and RSI in recent weeks.  Both technical indicators continue to show characteristics of a bullish trend, remaining firmly above their middle lines.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark and the key takeaway pertaining to the trend
• US Non-Farm Payroll report for April and the themes within that suggest where the best opportunities in this market are
• The Technology Sector
• An emerging trend in wages being paid to workers and the opportunity to benefit
• Canadian Labour Force Survey and what the results say of one seasonal play in the market that is just starting

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It was the miss on the payroll report that had traders chatting during the Friday session.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that 266,000 payrolls were added last month, which was significantly less than the consensus analyst estimate that called for a rise of 998,000.  The unemployment rate ticked higher to 6.1% from 6.0% previous and average hourly earnings jumped by 0.7%, far surpassing the unchanged result that was forecasted.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, payrolls actually increased by 1.089 million, or 0.8%, in April, which is stronger than the 0.7% increase that is the norm for the fourth month of the year, excluding the 13.1% decline recorded in April of last year.  The year-to-date change continues to hold an above average pace and is now higher by 0.6% through the first four months of the year.  This is a divergence compared to the 0.4% decline in payrolls that is average through the end of April.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Subscribe now.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.

 

 

 

 

Sectors and Industries entering their period of seasonal strength:

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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