Stock Market Outlook for June 23, 2021
Existing home sales struggle again during what is typically the height of the spring home selling season. This is threatening the strength in the consumer economy. Find out how and why in today’s report.
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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.  As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Allscripts, Inc. (NASD:MDRX) Seasonal Chart
Scotts Co. Cl A (NYSE:SMG) Seasonal Chart
Rush Enterprises, Inc. (NASD:RUSHB) Seasonal Chart
BancFirst Corp. (NASD:BANF) Seasonal Chart
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (NASD:GROW) Seasonal Chart
Tompkins Financial Corp. (AMEX:TMP) Seasonal Chart
Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:FDBC) Seasonal Chart
Riverview Financial Corporation (NASD:RIVE) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF (NYSE:RYU) Seasonal Chart
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The Markets
Stocks drifted higher as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified in front of the House of Representatives on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index gained just over half of one-percent, adding to Monday’s strong return. The benchmark has now clawed back virtually all of last week’s decline attributed to the spasm that followed the Fed Chairman’s press conference, making a valiant effort at keeping the rising intermediate-trend channel intact following the brief crack recorded on Friday. Short-term resistance at 4225 has been violated as the benchmark pushes towards record high territory again. Just a few more days remain in this mean-reversion/portfolio rebalancing period, a timeframe that has essentially seen the benchmark trade sideways since it began on the 14th. The resiliency has been impressive thus far, but we cannot rule out any shenanigans before the window comes to a close as portfolio managers bring their allocations back inline with investment policy guidelines and prepare for the quarter ahead, as well as for the second half of the year.
Today, in our Market Outlook for subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Existing Home Sales and the toll that slower than average activity is having on other areas of the economy
- Home building stocks and the potential trade ahead
- Citigroup Economic Surprise index and the convergence of actual data and estimates
- Forward earnings per share expectations and what it means for the direction of the market
- Opportunity in the ultra large-caps and how to play it
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.78.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
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S&P 500 Index
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TSE Composite
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