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Stock Market Outlook for July 18, 2022


Until one of the limits break, either higher above resistance around 3900 or lower below support at 3750, we will choose to sit with a neutral bias of stocks now that the summer rally period has reached its average peak as of the 17th of July. 

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Aptiv Plc (NYSE:APTV) Seasonal Chart

Aptiv Plc (NYSE:APTV) Seasonal Chart

Ambarella, Inc. (NASD:AMBA) Seasonal Chart

Ambarella, Inc. (NASD:AMBA) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global Tech ETF (NYSE:IXN) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global Tech ETF (NYSE:IXN) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE:UGL) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE:UGL) Seasonal Chart

Rogers Corp. (NYSE:ROG) Seasonal Chart

Rogers Corp. (NYSE:ROG) Seasonal Chart

Fortis, Inc. (TSE:FTS.TO) Seasonal Chart

Fortis, Inc. (TSE:FTS.TO) Seasonal Chart

Teucrium Sugar Fund (NYSE:CANE) Seasonal Chart

Teucrium Sugar Fund (NYSE:CANE) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (NYSE:KIE) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (NYSE:KIE) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

And the game of guessing how aggressive the Fed will be tightening monetary policy at its next meeting continues following a stronger than expected read of retail sales in the US.  The S&P 500 Index gapped higher in Friday’s session to close with a gain of 1.92%, trading back to levels around declining trendline resistance that has acted as a cap to the now concluded summer rally period for stocks. We continue to peg declining trendline resistance around 3900, a level that, if broken, would start to indicate a shift of the intermediate trend away from the path of lower-lows and lower-highs that it has been in all year.  The benchmark will have to overcome the recent shorter-term path of lower-lows and lower-highs first in what appears to be a consolidation of the sharp June decline, something that could still end up being a bear-flag setup, a pattern that would suggest a resolution lower in prices upon a definitive break of the recent consolidation span.  Until one of the limits break, either higher above resistance around 3900 or lower below support at 3750, we will choose to sit with a neutral bias now that the summer rally period has reached its average peak as of the 17th of July.  The gambling of how the Fed may react to the data-points that come in is not a game for us and we will continue to react to what the three-prongs to our approach are telling us.

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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Hourly and monthly look at the large-cap benchmark
  • US Retail Sales and the degradation observed in some of the most discretionary categories of the consumer economy
  • US Industrial Production and what drove the weakness to end the second quarter
  • Manufacturer sentiment and why the result may not be as “optimistic” as what the headlines suggest

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 18

Not signed up yet?  Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.92.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Bank of America Corporation Seasonal Chart International Business Machines Corporation Seasonal Chart The Charles Schwab Corporation Seasonal Chart Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart Prologis, Inc. Seasonal Chart Synchrony Financial Seasonal Chart Equity Lifestyle Properties, Inc. Seasonal Chart ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. Seasonal Chart FB Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Marten Transport, Ltd. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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