Stock Market Outlook for August 5, 2022
Gold miners perking up within a short-term bottoming pattern, potentially lining up for a trade through the remainder of August.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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HCI Group, Inc. (NYSE:HCI) Seasonal Chart
Mueller Industries Inc. (NYSE:MLI) Seasonal Chart
TransGlobe Energy Corp. (TSE:TGL.TO) Seasonal Chart
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) Seasonal Chart
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:TYL) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks traded in a narrow range on Thursday as traders prepared for the release of monthly payroll report for July. The S&P 500 Index shed just less than a tenth of one percent, continuing to show reaction to horizontal resistance around the May high at 4170. Short-term upside momentum has started to show signs of stalling as this critical juncture in the intermediate-term trend of lower-lows and lower-highs is put to the test. Intermediate support continues to be pegged at the now rising 50-day moving average, a hurdle that, if tested, could form the basis of a head-and-shoulders bottoming pattern. The most important element of this bottoming setup has yet to be charted, which is the higher-low above the June bottom. A higher-low is a critical outcome to confirm that the market is on track to fulfil our back-half of the year forecasted strength for stocks. The near-term retracement back to levels of intermediate support, such as the 50-day moving average, is seen as being most likely through the middle of August, inline with the pattern suggested by the average performance during mid-term election years under a new presidential party.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- A look at what to expect from July’s Non-Farm Payroll report
- The rejection of the US Dollar Index from short-term resistance
- Gold Miners
- US Mobility Trends following our concerning comments on gasoline demand
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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