Stock Market Outlook for August 10, 2022
Investors are being observed de-risking around levels of significant resistance.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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NVIDIA Corp. (NASD:NVDA) Seasonal Chart
Discovery, Inc. (NASD:DISCA) Seasonal Chart
CACI Intl, Inc. (NYSE:CACI) Seasonal Chart
Columbia Banking System, Inc. (NASD:COLB) Seasonal Chart
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASD:SCVL) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks drifted lower on Tuesday as the reaction to the May/June highs in the market continues. The S&P 500 Index shed just over four-tenths of one percent, showing short-term indications of rolling over from resistance at 4170. Momentum indicators are showing the same with MACD gradually converging back on its signal line in what could present a sell signal in the days ahead. Despite this near-term pullback, there is more to be optimistic of than pessimistic of as characteristics of a bearish trend that have dominated this year have, for the most part, been relinquished. With the rollover of price on par with the last intermediate high charted in May/June, the market has avoided charting a subsequent lower-high, something that would have given the bears something to really sink their teeth into. As well, momentum indicators have moved back above their middle lines, recently advancing to the highest levels since last November. There is growing evidence that the intermediate negative trend in the market has concluded and, while there is an elevated probability of a near-term pullback into the middle of August, looking for buying opportunities for the strength that we have forecasted for stocks through the back half of the year is prudent. A higher-intermediate low above the June bottom is the desired outcome in the weeks ahead, an event that would provide a significant catalyst to fuel broad market participation and the reset the overly negative sentiment that had proliferated this spring.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Rollover of high beta versus low volatility
- Signs of investor de-risking
- Inverse S&P 500 ETF
- The perpetual trend of underperformance of global stocks versus US equities
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for August 10
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.93.
Upcoming Event…
Using Seasonality to Determine Where We Are in the Economic Cycle (Recession)? and How to Invest
Saturday, September 17, 2022 | 3:00 pm – 3:45 pm EDT
Some leading indicators are hinting that we are on the path towards an economic recession, traditionally an ideal time to abandon risk in portfolios. Jon Vialoux will show you what he’s looking at and how to best position your portfolio using seasonal analysis.
Click on the following registration link to book your FREE spot to our presentation: Register Now
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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