Stock Market Outlook for April 10, 2023
The rotation that is playing out in the market is keeping the large-cap benchmark supported, but, in a recession scenario, a break below the long-term rising range would be expected.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Suburban Propane Partners LP (NYSE:SPH) Seasonal Chart
Blackbaud Inc. (NASD:BLKB) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (NYSE:DFJ) Seasonal Chart
TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (AMEX:TTAC) Seasonal Chart
Janus Small/Mid Cap Growth Alpha ETF (NASD:JSMD) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite ETF (NYSE:PBP) Seasonal Chart
Scholastic Corp. (NASD:SCHL) Seasonal Chart
Albany Intl Corp. (NYSE:AIN) Seasonal Chart
ANSYS, Inc. (NASD:ANSS) Seasonal Chart
ADTRAN, Inc. (NASD:ADTN) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core High Quality Canadian Bond Index ETF (TSE:XQB.TO) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:SLYG) Seasonal Chart
Note: Due to the Good Friday holiday closure of markets in the US and Canada, our next report will be released on Monday.
The Markets
Stocks edged higher to close out the holiday shortened trading week as investors await the always anticipated monthly payroll report that is slated to be released on Friday. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just over a third of one percent, reaching back into the range of overhead resistance between 4100 and 4200. While MACD remains on a buy signal and the momentum indicator remains sloped higher, the histogram of the indicator is beginning to contract as the technical indicator converges on its signal line in what could become a bearish crossover in the days/weeks ahead. If MACD charts a bearish cross below the level of the last MACD sell signal triggered early in February, it would continue to emphasize the lack of upside momentum in the market, hinting that the path of lower-lows and lower-highs since MACD peaked at the start of December will be revealed with respect to price, as well. Near-term support can continue to be pegged in the span of the confluence of major moving averages between 3900 and 4000 and, in a point of optimism, the variable hurdles are starting to show slight signs of curling higher. The benchmark is still a ways off from seeing these averages trend in a highly correlated manner, either higher or lower, revealing the steady parallel pattern that is characteristic of a trending market. There remains segments of this market that are worthy to Accumulate and those that should be Avoided and we break them all out in our weekly chart books.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The flee from core-cyclicals and the race towards defensives
- The inordinate amount of time the large-cap benchmark has spent in the lower half of its rising range
- Bond-stock ratio
- Canada Labour Force Survey and what it may forecast for the US payroll report slated to be released on Friday
- The technicals of the US and Canadian dollars
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.01.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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