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Stock Market Outlook for June 16, 2023

This market continues to defy all expectations in the midst of ongoing fundamental concerns.

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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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ArcBest Corp. (NASD:ARCB) Seasonal Chart

ArcBest Corp. (NASD:ARCB) Seasonal Chart

Aspen Group, Inc. (NASD:ASPU) Seasonal Chart

Aspen Group, Inc. (NASD:ASPU) Seasonal Chart

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion (NYSE:VLRS) Seasonal Chart

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion (NYSE:VLRS) Seasonal Chart

Avita Medical Ltd. (NASD:RCEL) Seasonal Chart

Avita Medical Ltd. (NASD:RCEL) Seasonal Chart



The Markets

The rally in stocks continues, seemingly defying all expectations and causing portfolio managers to just step in and buy, regardless of any concerns that may persist on the macro fundamental front.  The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of 1.22%, continuing to stretch the recent short-term parabolic path that was derived from the breakout from resistance at 4200.  We are clearly in a market where levels of resistance mean nothing and levels of support mean everything, which is characteristic of a bullish trend.  Support remains embedded around major moving averages, which have begun to fan out with the parabolic rise in prices in recent weeks.  From a pure technical perspective, this market has left little for the bears to hold on to and, at this point, the only potential prospect remains that we see a short-term pullback before the end of the quarter in order to relinquish the overbought condition on the chart before the normal summer rally period begins at the end of June.  We continue to look at the previous breakout point at 4200 as the point of support for the summer rally trade, but, at the rate of appreciation that the market has shown, we have to wonder how much meat will be left on the bone in order for us seasonally oriented strategists to take a bite.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Expansion of the new 52-week high list
  • The spike in non-seasonally adjusted reads of jobless claims last week
  • US Retail Sales
  • US Industrial Production
  • Manufacturer sentiment

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for June 16

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.90.


Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Naas Technology Inc. Seasonal Chart


S&P 500 Index


TSE Composite


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