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Stock Market Outlook for July 5, 2023

July is the second strongest month of the year for stocks with the S&P 500 Index averaging a gain of 2.2% and 75% of periods have closed higher.

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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

TJX Cos., Inc. (NYSE:TJX) Seasonal Chart

TJX Cos., Inc. (NYSE:TJX) Seasonal Chart

Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG) Seasonal Chart

Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (NASD:RTH) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (NASD:RTH) Seasonal Chart

Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) Seasonal Chart

Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) Seasonal Chart

Kesselrun Resources Ltd. (TSXV:KES.V) Seasonal Chart

Kesselrun Resources Ltd. (TSXV:KES.V) Seasonal Chart

Global X Internet of Things Thematic ETF (NASD:SNSR) Seasonal Chart

Global X Internet of Things Thematic ETF (NASD:SNSR) Seasonal Chart



Note: Due to the Canada Day and Independence Day holiday closures of markets in Canada and the US, our next report will be released on Wednesday, July 5th.  Have a great long weekend everyone!


The Markets

Stocks closed strongly higher on Friday as the normal summer rally stretches its legs given the chase for performance/window-dressing into quarter-end and the investment of new funds in the market at the start of the new quarter in July.  The S&P 500 Index rallied by 1.23%, charting a fresh 52-week high and continuing to bounce from the 20-day moving average that now sits at 4351.  Momentum indicators have curled back higher and RSI is once again knocking on the doorstep of overbought territory at 70.  Characteristics of a bullish trend have become well ingrained, supportive of the normal rise in prices that we see of this mid-year period.  In our monthly report for July released to subscribers, we make the contention that the large-cap benchmark has the momentum to reach 4,600 as part of this upside thrust, a target based on the calculated move of the breakout from the 400-point span between 3800 and 4200.  Following that point and heading into the most volatile time of the year spanning the remainder of the third quarter, the need for renewed caution will exist.

Just released…

Our monthly report for July is out, providing you with everything that you need to know for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of July
  • Positioning/sentiment no longer a tailwind for stocks
  • Trading the period of seasonal volatility ahead
  • Gold
  • The Summer Rally
  • What scenario specific seasonal studies have to say
  • Banks continue to have nothing optimistic to say of the market nor the economy
  • Canadian Banks
  • Treasury Yield spreads turning lower again after showing signs of starting to normalize in March
  • Central bank liquidity supporting equity prices
  • Analysts forecasting growth through the back half of the year
  • Strong consumer offsetting weak business activity
  • The burden against the consumer heading through the back half of the year
  • Businesses/Producers potentially entering a deflationary phase
  • Bond market hanging in and still looking good for when positive tendencies resume mid-July
  • Opportunities outside of the US
  • Looking for rotation into Emerging Markets
  • Health care remains the correct prescription for summer portfolios
  • Gauges of risk reacting to levels of horizontal resistance
  • Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector Reviews and Ratings
  • Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of July
  • Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in July

Look for this 106-page report in your inbox or via the archive at

Not subscribed yet?  Sign up to our service now to receive this report and all of the research that we publish highlighting seasonal, technical, and fundamental setups in the economy and the market.

With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for July, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every July over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this seventh month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned.  We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Monthly look at the large-cap benchmark
  • A review of the July tendencies impacting stocks
  • Margin debt and credit balances in investor accounts
  • Canada GDP and what the data has to say about where to invest, fundamentally, in the market

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for July 5

Not signed up yet?  Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.90.  


Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

  • No significant earnings scheduled for today.


S&P 500 Index


TSE Composite


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Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

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