Stock Market Outlook for August 15, 2023
Risk aversion may not be present in the bond or precious metal markets, but we can certainly pick out evidence in the equity and commodity markets.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Dycom Industries, Inc. (NYSE:DY) Seasonal Chart
Balchem Corp. (NASD:BCPC) Seasonal Chart
Moog, Inc. (NYSE:MOG/A) Seasonal Chart
Farmer Brothers Co. (NASD:FARM) Seasonal Chart
WildBrain Ltd (TSE:WILD.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks rebounded to start the week as investors start to nibble again at technology exposure following the pullback that has been seen over the past couple weeks. The S&P 500 Index gained just less than six-tenths of one percent, bouncing slightly from support presented by the 50-day moving average at 4443. Near-term downside momentum appears to be fading with the MACD histogram starting to rebound from the low charted last week. Reaction to the rising 50-day moving average will be scrutinized closely as a break of this hurdle will have negative implications beyond the short-term pullback that has played out since the month of August began. Given the weak seasonal tendencies for stocks that persist through the remainder of the third quarter and ongoing concerns pertaining to the economic fundamentals, we are biased towards caution at this time, but it would not be a surprise to see an upside attempt now that the market has corrected back to to its 50-day, an important hurdle in the intermediate-term path. Remember, levels down to the June breakout point at 4200 are fair game as part of this normal period of volatility/weakness.
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- Commodities
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update: Find out what has been added to our growing list of Avoid candidates and what warranted upgrading as we head towards the fall
- Precious metals
- US Dollar
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.98.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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