Stock Market Outlook for September 28, 2023
Stocks are attempting to make a stand following aggressive option market hedging, but the question is whether or not strength be sustained from here.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Sealed Air Corp New (NYSE:SEE) Seasonal Chart
Brink’s Co. (NYSE:BCO) Seasonal Chart
Lear Corp. (NYSE:LEA) Seasonal Chart
Transmation, Inc. (NASD:TRNS) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed near the flat-line on Wednesday, shaking off losses that were recorded intraday. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by a mere two basis points (0.02%) after testing levels near its 200-day moving average around 4200 at the lows of the session. A fairly indecisive doji candlestick has been charted, which hints of investors attempting to make a stand following the bleed in prices over the past couple of months. Follow-through above the high set in the Tuesday session at 4313 would be required to confirm the shift of the short-term trend. The benchmark has reached the realm of our proposed target for the period of volatility/weakness for stocks of 4200 and, with the clock winding down on the weakest time of year that comes to an end at close of September, we have to be prepared for selling to become exhausted. Wednesday’s price action hints of exactly that. Volatility peaks, on average, just over a week into the month of October, but similar hints of exhaustion in the near-term rising trend alludes to buyers stepping in to buy the dip.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The strength in small-caps on Wednesday
- The threat against any sustainability in the rebound in the market
- Margin debt and credit balances
- Active investment manager exposure to stocks and individual investor sentiment
- The state of oil supply and demand and the headwind against the price of the commodity that may start to materialize through the weeks ahead
- The bearish skew presented by the put-call ratio
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended overly bearish at 1.40.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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