Stock Market Outlook for October 30, 2023
Bonds and commodities are showing the first signs of sustained outperformance versus stocks this year, providing a place of refuge in this market selloff.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Canopy Growth Corp. (NYSE:CGC) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Midcap 400 ETF (NYSE:MDY) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (NYSE:PEJ) Seasonal Chart
Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (NASD:BECN) Seasonal Chart
Fiserv, Inc. (NASD:FISV) Seasonal Chart
Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (NYSE:UNH) Seasonal Chart
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Seasonal Chart
Cineplex Inc. (TSE:CGX.TO) Seasonal Chart
Becton Dickinson and Co. (NYSE:BDX) Seasonal Chart
Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (NYSE:IVOV) Seasonal Chart
CIGNA Corp. (NYSE:CI) Seasonal Chart
Western Digital Corp. (NASD:WDC) Seasonal Chart
Cemex SA (NYSE:CX) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks continued to struggle into the end of the week as investors express their hesitation of holding elevated levels of risk amidst ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by just less than half of one percent after touching the lower limit of the band of significant horizontal support between 4100 and 4200. The violation of the lower limit of the declining trend channel that the benchmark has been in since July gives the trajectory a bit of a parabolic look, highlighting the emergence of a disorderly move as the index contends with the horizontal band that is upon us. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold territory below 30 for the second time this month, continuing to exhibit characteristics of a bearish trend that has kept traders inclined to remain sellers of stocks. At some point, a reprieve in selling pressures is a reasonable bet coinciding with the start of the best six month of the year trend for the market, but there remains questions as to how sustainable any advance during this favourable timeframe will be. A violation of the current band that is being tested would start to lend itself to a significant lower high below the January of 2022 peak, which would not bode well for the long-term path of the benchmark. Below the aforementioned band, the next logical hurdle to scrutinize is the band of support between 3600 and 3800. The market remains in a highly pivotal position for both the intermediate and long-term paths heading into what is traditionally an upbeat timeframe for the market through the next six months.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Relative trend of the bond market breaking above a bottoming pattern
- Commodities
- Utilities Sector
- Consumer and Business Loan activity
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.18.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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