Stock Market Outlook for November 9, 2023
Wholesale inventories remain on a contractionary path, a scenario that, in modern history, has only ever been seen during economic recessions.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF (AMEX:XMLV) Seasonal Chart
Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF (NYSE:DBEF) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Market ETF (NYSE:ITOT) Seasonal Chart
Pacer Fund Trust Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF (AMEX:PTLC) Seasonal Chart
Global X SuperDividend ETF (AMEX:SDIV) Seasonal Chart
BMO Low Volatility US Equity ETF (TSE:ZLU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (TSE:BDGI.TO) Seasonal Chart
PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) Seasonal Chart
The J. M. Smucker Co. (NYSE:SJM) Seasonal Chart
Helen of Troy Ltd. (NASD:HELE) Seasonal Chart
Bruker Corp. (NASD:BRKR) Seasonal Chart
Algoma Central Corp. (TSE:ALC.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mixed for a second day as investors digest the gains from the week past. The S&P 500 Index ended higher by a mere tenth of one percent, starting to reveal near-term upside exhaustion around horizontal resistance at 4400. The horizontal hurdle aligns with the 100-day moving average, which has been curling lower in recent weeks. Momentum indicators remain pointed higher, but similar evidence of waning buying demand in the near-term can be picked out here as well. The benchmark has yet to emerge from the cloud of major moving averages that supported the upside move in prices between March and July, providing a rather questionable view of the sustainability of the upside trajectory from here. The major hurdle below to support the intermediate path of the benchmark heading into the best six months of the year trend for stocks is the range between 4100 and 4200, presenting the best risk-reward to accumulating equity exposure for the next seasonal uptick in prices that normally surrounds the US Thanksgiving holiday. In the interim, through the middle of November, tendencies for stocks tend to lean flat to negative following start of the month strength.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Wholesale Sales and Inventories
- Seasonal trade in the Agriculture industry
- The depressed state of Agricultural commodities
- The negative path of Copper
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.20.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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