Stock Market Outlook for November 16, 2023
Gasoline demand is abnormally upbeat through this fall season as consumers welcome the lower price of the winter blend.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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VictoryShares International High Div Volatility Wtd ETF (NASD:CID) Seasonal Chart
MFS Charter Income Fund (NYSE:MCR) Seasonal Chart
Special Opportunities Fund, Inc. (NYSE:SPE) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Extended Market ETF (NYSE:VXF) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Finland Capped ETF (AMEX:EFNL) Seasonal Chart
Global X MSCI SuperDividend EAFE ETF (NASD:EFAS) Seasonal Chart
Northwest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:NWH/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Total Energy Services Inc. (TSE:TOT.TO) Seasonal Chart
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE:IPI) Seasonal Chart
Interfor Corp. (TSE:IFP.TO) Seasonal Chart
Clough Global Equity Fund (AMEX:GLQ) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks inched higher on Wednesday amidst further signs that the inflation problem that the economy has been battling is seeing relief. The S&P 500 Index added just over a tenth of one percent, charting a rather indecisive doji candlestick pattern around psychological resistance at 4500. The benchmark has come a long way in a short period of time and, while this period through the middle of November typically realizes the digestion of early month gains, we still must be prepared for some kind of short-term re-tracement in order to keep the upside trajectory on a healthy footing. Fortunately, with a number of points of gap support below (eg. 4425, 4330, 4250) and major moving averages providing a backstop should a pullback occur, a bullish bias of stocks, overall, heading through the end of the year remains warranted as the bears lose their grip. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bordering on overbought territory around 70 and the expansion of the MACD histogram is slowing, both lending themselves to near-term buying exhaustion as we head into the back half of November. Remember, a period of tax loss selling should be expected as investors seek to step out of any exposure that is down on the year (eg. Utilities, REITs, Staples) in order to offset the gains that have been derived by allocations toward growth (eg. Technology, Communciation Services). The gyrations in recent days may have caused the market to drift off of short-term seasonal norms, but they don’t mitigate the normal routines that portfolio managers will carry out before they leave their desks later in December for end of year vacations.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Retail Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status, the state of supply and demand in the energy market, and what to accumulate in the energy sector
- US Producer Price Index (PPI)
- The breakdown of the intermediate treasury yield below trendline support
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.82.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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