December continues the positivity in the equity market with the S&P 500 Index averaging a gain of 0.9% with 70% of periods closing higher.

Stock Market Outlook for December 1, 2023

December continues the positivity in the equity market with the S&P 500 Index averaging a gain of 0.9% with 70% of periods closing higher.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Magnite, Inc (NASD:MGNI) Seasonal Chart

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) Seasonal Chart

Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF (AMEX:GVIP) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NASD:ICLN) Seasonal Chart

Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (NASD:Z) Seasonal Chart

Celanese Corp. (NYSE:CE) Seasonal Chart

Embraer Aircraft (NYSE:ERJ) Seasonal Chart

U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (NASD:GROW) Seasonal Chart

Aberdeen International Inc (TSE:AAB.TO) Seasonal Chart

Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ZBH) Seasonal Chart

Cogeco Cable, Inc. (TSE:CCA.TO) Seasonal Chart

Cambria Global Asset Allocation ETF (AMEX:GAA) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NASD:EWZS) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF (NYSE:EWK) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF (AMEX:CRBN) Seasonal Chart

Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Stocks closed generally higher in the final session of November as traders were seen scooping up beaten down names in the Health Care and Financial sectors. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of just less than four-tenths of one percent, continuing to gyrate around a range of indecision at the 4550 level. Resistance at the July high of 4600 remains in focus for analysts heading into the end of the year as the benchmark seeks to alleviate the overbought condition that had been built up following the rally since the end of October. The MACD histogram continues to narrow, lining up the momentum indicator to realize a bearish crossover in the days ahead, barring some re-invigoration of upside momentum. With the tax-loss selling period ahead, running through the first half of December, the risk-reward to adding new equity exposure in the near-term is less than ideal, however, that still leaves us with little to do according to our intermediate-term approach that remains with a positive bias. Levels of support below the market remain numerous and it would take a significant catalyst to fuel a breakdown of the market before the end of the year.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Monthly look at the large-cap benchmark

Tendencies for stocks in the last month of the year

Securities that have gained or lost in every December over their trading history

Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market

Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

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Looking towards the last month of the year, the positivity in the equity market typically continues, mainly after the tax-loss selling period through the first half of the month. The S&P 500 Index has gained 0.9%, on average, in December over the past two decades with 70% of periods showing a positive result. Returns over the past 20 years have ranged from a loss of 9.2% in 2018 to a gain of 6.5% in 2010.

Just released…

Our monthly report for December is out, providing you with everything that you need to know heading into the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of December

Rebound in stocks being fueled by an injection of liquidity in the market

Near-term headwind to equity prices presented by tax-loss selling

Market bordering on complacency heading into the end of the year

The trend of earnings expectations and its impact on equity market direction

Dollar and rates

Managed money still holding aggressive short positions in treasury bonds, fueling a short-squeeze

Pause in Rates Preferred by investors and Preferred Stocks

Next Phase of Growth over Value

Bullish Precious Metals and the Miners

The period of seasonal strength for Oil is directly ahead and the presidential election cycle suggests favourable benefits, as well

Time to consider inflation hedges for portfolios

Decline in Industrial production could have implications on next year’s presidential election, if continued

Consumer showing signs of strain heading into the normally upbeat month of December

Consumers still not seeing relief in prices of the necessities of life

Wages taking off again, providing Americans with real growth of their incomes

Time to rotate to Canadian equities?

Time to rotate to Small Caps?

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of December

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in December

Subscribers can look for this 117-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.

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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for December, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every December over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this last month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.