Stock Market Outlook for December 5, 2023
The market is presenting the prospect of being highly rotational through the weeks ahead.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE Index ETF (TSE:XMI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Energy Growth and Income Fund (AMEX:FEN) Seasonal Chart
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2x Shares (NYSE:NUGT) Seasonal Chart
iShares Silver Bullion ETF (TSE:SVR/C.TO) Seasonal Chart
Cronos Group Inc. (NASD:CRON) Seasonal Chart
Nabors Industries, Inc. (NYSE:NBR) Seasonal Chart
Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE:WY) Seasonal Chart
Pan American Silver Corp. (TSE:PAAS.TO) Seasonal Chart
Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:CAR/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
British American Tobacco PLC (NYSE:BTI) Seasonal Chart
Altria Group Inc. (NYSE:MO) Seasonal Chart
XBiotech Inc. (NASD:XBIT) Seasonal Chart
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The Markets
Stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors rotated from former leaders in growth sectors (technology and communication services) and attempted to rejuvenate buying demand in some of this year laggards (eg. small caps, REITs, banks). The S&P 500 Index closed with a loss of just over half of one percent, once again realizing a stall of buying momentum below the July high of 4600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has again fallen out of overbought territory above 70 and MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal as it closes in on its signal line. A pause/digestion of the strength from the rally off of October low amidst the normal tax-loss selling period is showing signs of getting underway. While this near-term retracement lower in prices is normal for the first half of December, the intermediate path of the benchmark continues to show everything to be enticed by from a seasonal holding perspective, suggesting that opportunities from this pullback should arise. Levels of support below the market remain numerous, including major moving averages and upside open gaps that were charted from the rebound off of the band of significant horizontal support between 4100 and 4200; the likely point of support as part of this seasonally normal digestive phase is November 14th’s upside gap around 4450, barring the revelation of a negative catalyst. A drawdown to this juncture, while insignificant from the context of the late October to start of December gain, would be significant compared to the mere 0.3% decline that is normal through the first half of December.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Expansion of breadth
- Breakout of interest rate sensitive segments of the market above significant declining trendline resistance
- Bonds
- Our Weekly Chart Books update along with all areas of the market that we see as candidates to Accumulate or to Avoid
- Equal weighting your portfolio into the new year
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for December 5
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Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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