Stock Market Market Outlook for December 11, 2023
While election year cycle tendencies suggest strength for stocks into year-end, weakness through the first ten weeks of an election year is normal.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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BMO S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (TSE:ZCN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (NYSE:EDD) Seasonal Chart
iShares Europe ETF (NYSE:IEV) Seasonal Chart
Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF (NYSE:PPLT) Seasonal Chart
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (AMEX:SGDJ) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Health Care Equipment ETF (NYSE:XHE) Seasonal Chart
Major Drilling Group Intl, Inc. (TSE:MDI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Denison Mines Corp. (TSE:DML.TO) Seasonal Chart
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (NASD:IDXX) Seasonal Chart
iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF (TSE:XRE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Constellation Software Inc. (TSE:CSU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Extendicare Inc. (TSE:EXE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (TSE:PBH.TO) Seasonal Chart
CAE, Inc. (TSE:CAE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF (NYSE:VPL) Seasonal Chart
iShares Canadian Value Index ETF (TSE:XCV.TO) Seasonal Chart
Sony Group Corporation (NYSE:SONY) Seasonal Chart
Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV) Seasonal Chart
Endeavour Mining Corp. (TSE:EDV.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF (TSE:ZEO.TO) Seasonal Chart
Canadian Utilities Ltd. (TSE:CU.TO) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Global Dividend ETF (AMEX:WDIV) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASD:VXUS) Seasonal Chart
AirBoss of America Corp. (TSE:BOS.TO) Seasonal Chart
Bonterra Energy Corp. (TSE:BNE.TO) Seasonal Chart
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Convertible Bond ETF (AMEX:ICVT) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Small-Cap ETF (AMEX:EEMS) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks pushed higher on Friday following the release of a stronger than expected report of employment in the US that calmed investor fears that the labor market is slowing. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of four-tenths of one percent, pressuring resistance at the July high of 4600. Despite momentum indicators triggering sell signals in recent days and the fact that we are well within the traditional tax-loss selling period that spans the first half of December, there is not much of a pullback to speak of, other than a sideways digestive pattern. Hints of a FOMO (“Fear of Missing Out”) trade is emerging with the VIX falling to the lowest level since the days prior to the pandemic, risking the production of a complacent market heading into the Santa Claus rally period, adding an element of vulnerability to prices through the positive period for equity prices at year-end. Levels of support below the benchmark remain plentiful and the mid-November upside open gap around 4450 remains the logical retracement zone should the broad market start to portray the weakness that is normal for the first half of December.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Election Year tendencies for stocks
- US Employment Situation and the areas of the labor market that are thriving
- The weakest November increase to Retail employment since 2008
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for December 11
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-ca; ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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