Stock Market Outlook for December 12, 2023
Concerns pertaining to the fundamental prospects of China warrants scrutiny of all seasonal trades that rely on strength stemming from this region into the Chinese New Year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF (NASD:VNQI) Seasonal Chart
Enterprise Oilfield Group, Inc. (TSE:E.TO) Seasonal Chart
Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF (AMEX:FYLD) Seasonal Chart
iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility Emerging Markets ETF (AMEX:EEMV) Seasonal Chart
Purpose Diversified Real Asset Fund (TSE:PRA.TO) Seasonal Chart
Russel Metals, Inc. (TSE:RUS.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF (TSE:XIU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Treasury Metals Inc. (TSE:TML.TO) Seasonal Chart
Argan, Inc. (NYSE:AGX) Seasonal Chart
CRH, PLC (NYSE:CRH) Seasonal Chart
Mullen Group Ltd. (TSE:MTL.TO) Seasonal Chart
Aberdeen Global Premier Properties Fund (NYSE:AWP) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks pushed higher to start the week, continuing to wade through the traditional tax-loss selling period unhindered as investors await some of the key economic datapoints to be released this week. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just less than four-tenths of one percent, moving beyond resistance at 4600 and charting a new high to the year. The benchmark finds itself back in overbought territory with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. The MACD sell signal triggered last week has failed to amount to much of a negative skew for stocks, thus far, and now the histogram for this indicator is narrowing to the upside. The perception right now is that there is a chase for exposure among portfolio managers that have been light in their equity holdings this year, perhaps mitigating the negativity that is typically realized of the tax-loss selling period that spans the first half of December. But as we cautioned investors on earlier this month, the highly rotational nature of the market through December suggests that we cannot dismiss a digestive phase, yet. This is merely short-term caution and we continue to tailor our portfolio according to a more intermediate (seasonal) view across asset classes. Levels of support below broad equity and bond market benchmarks remain plentiful, supporting the intermediate-term path of each heading through the end of the year. The prospects for stocks through the start of next year is more questionable, however.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribes, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with all areas of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- The change we are making to the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- Scrutiny warranted of China’s impact in seasonal trades ahead
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for December 12
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.95.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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