Stock Market Outlook for January 17, 2024
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey just recorded the lowest level for the month of January on record as its path diverges from what is normal at the start of the year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Williams Sonoma, Inc. (NYSE:WSM) Seasonal Chart
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics Inc. (NASD:BCLI) Seasonal Chart
Penumbra, Inc. (NYSE:PEN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks struggled in the first session of the holiday shortened week following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that there is no reason to cut rates as rapidly as what has been done in the past. The S&P 500 Index ended the day lower by just less than four-tenths of one percent, remaining pinned between short-term support at the 20-day moving average (4750) and significant horizontal resistance at the all-time high of 4800. Once again, struggling momentum is becoming apparent as both RSI and MACD show signs of extending recent short-term declines; characteristics of an intermediate bullish trend remain intact, however, with both momentum indicators holding above their middle lines. The logical downside target on continued digestion of last year’s strength is to previous horizontal resistance, now support, at 4600. A break below the January 5th low around 4700 would complete a short-term double-top pattern, a setup that projects a similar downside target. The tape looks sloppy in the short-term, something that could persist through the next six/seven weeks during a period in election years when stocks tend to struggle anyways, but the intermediate-term backdrop continues to look solid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The bullish pattern on the chart of notable bond ETFs
- Our weekly chart books update, along with all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey
- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.02.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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