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Stock Market Outlook for January 18, 2024

The derailment of China from seasonal norms risks spreading more broadly to those areas of the market that rely on strength from this region of the world at this time of year.

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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Unilever PLC (NYSE:UL) Seasonal Chart

Unilever PLC (NYSE:UL) Seasonal Chart

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLC) Seasonal Chart

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLC) Seasonal Chart

Opera Ltd. (NASD:OPRA) Seasonal Chart

Opera Ltd. (NASD:OPRA) Seasonal Chart


The Markets

Stocks closed lower for a second day as the rise in the dollar and rates alleviates some buying demand for risk assets.  The S&P 500 Index closed lower by nearly six-tenths of one percent, breaking below short-term support at its 20-day moving average (4751) A short-term double-top below significant resistance at the all-time high of 4800 is becoming increasingly apparent, a pattern that would project a downside target to 4600, more or less aligning with the level that the 50-day moving average is hovering at.  Momentum indicators have resumed a short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows that has been playing out since December 19th, however, characteristics of an intermediate-term bullish trend remain with both MACD and RSI remaining above their middle lines.  The weakness in equity prices remains aligned with what is normal through the first couple of months of the year, a period during any given year and during election years when prices tend to soften following a strong run in the year prior.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • A renewed attempt at normalization of the yield curve and the headwind it is causing for equity prices
  • Gold and Gold Miners
  • The derailment from seasonal norms in China and the resulting threats on seasonal trades that typically perform well at the start of the year
  • US Retail Sales
  • US Industrial Production

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.99.



Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Truist Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Fastenal Company Seasonal Chart PPG Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart M&T Bank Corporation Seasonal Chart J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. Seasonal Chart Northern Trust Corporation Seasonal Chart KeyCorp Seasonal Chart First Horizon Corporation Seasonal Chart Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Seasonal Chart Bank OZK Seasonal Chart F.N.B. Corporation Seasonal Chart Home BancShares, Inc. Seasonal Chart WNS (Holdings) Limited Seasonal Chart Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. Seasonal Chart Independent Bank Corp. Seasonal Chart Banner Corporation Seasonal Chart OceanFirst Financial Corp. Seasonal Chart Insteel Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. Seasonal Chart Five Point Holdings, LLC Seasonal Chart


S&P 500 Index


TSE Composite



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