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Stock Market Outlook for January 19, 2024

All of a sudden, the bearish short-term double-top on the S&P 500 Index has turned into a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern. Either way, the 4800 is important to the market.

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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (NYSE:TMHC) Seasonal Chart

Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (NYSE:TMHC) Seasonal Chart

The Lovesac Company (NASD:LOVE) Seasonal Chart

The Lovesac Company (NASD:LOVE) Seasonal Chart


The Markets

Stocks closed generally mixed on Thursday, but a rebound in the Technology sector helped to fuel gains for broad market benchmarks.  The S&P 500 Index ended the day higher by nearly nine-tenths of one percent, retaking levels above short-term support at the 20-day moving average (4753) and once again pressuring significant horizontal resistance at 4800.  The short-term path continues to become more confusing.  While just yesterday it appeared like a short-term double-top pattern was increasingly likely, confirmation of which would be achieved by a break below the start of January low below 4700, Thursday’s rebound certainly reduces the likelihood of this prospect.  A double-top pattern would have presented a downside target back to previous resistance, now support, at 4600.  While the short-term path confounds traders below the all-time high around 4800, we continue to be left with little to do in overall portfolio positioning given our intermediate-term focus within our seasonal strategy.  The intermediate-term technicals remain definitively positive with momentum indicators hovering above their middle lines and major moving averages in positions of support below.  Seasonally, the first eight to ten weeks of the year normally realize sloppy equity market performance, therefore there is not much reason to be aggressive here, but there is also no reason to suggest taking down risk/equity exposure either.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Hourly look at the large-cap benchmark
  • US Housing Starts and Permits
  • Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
  • Very weak manufacturer sentiment
  • Copper-Gold ratio

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.90.




Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Schlumberger N.V. Seasonal Chart The Travelers Companies, Inc. Seasonal Chart State Street Corporation Seasonal Chart Fifth Third Bancorp Seasonal Chart Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Seasonal Chart Regions Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Ally Financial Inc. Seasonal Chart Comerica Incorporated Seasonal Chart World Acceptance Corporation Seasonal Chart


S&P 500 Index


TSE Composite



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