Stock Market Outlook for January 24, 2024
While major equity benchmarks may be at a record high, market sentiment and positioning indicators seem rather neutral (neither bullish nor bearish).
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart
Crane Co. (NYSE:CR) Seasonal Chart
Greenbrier Cos, Inc. (NYSE:GBX) Seasonal Chart
Teekay Corp. (NYSE:TK) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks drifted mildly higher on Tuesday as traders remain in “buy mode” following the breakout of major benchmarks to new all-time highs in the past few days. The S&P 500 Index ended with a gain of three-tenths of one percent, now around 65-points above previous resistance at 4800; the breakout of the short-term consolidation pattern that the market battled with through the first couple of weeks of January has an upside target of 4900. Short-term support can continue to be pegged around the rising 20-day moving average (4770). The spread between major moving averages and the level of momentum indicators above their middle lines remain characteristic of an intermediate-term bullish trend, something that is not expected to change to anything actionable for some time to come. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging back into overbought territory above 70, which could easily exhaust buying pressures in the short-term, but it is still reminiscent of a bullish path over a multi-month timeframe. Market technicals remain overwhelmingly positive, warranting the ongoing positive view of the direction of stocks.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The rise of the US Dollar
- Commodities holding steady
- Active Investment Managers not very “active” at the all-time highs
- Commitment of Traders (COT) report points to increasing pessimism among managed money as the market climbs higher
- Margin debt has yet to portray signs of “excess”
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.91.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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