Stock Market Outlook for January 29, 2024
Last year, commercial and industrial loans showed the largest calendar-year decline outside of a recessionary timeframe on record.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Adobe Systems, Inc. (NASD:ADBE) Seasonal Chart
Hasbro, Inc. (NASD:HAS) Seasonal Chart
Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASD:ERIC) Seasonal Chart
Calamos Dynamic Convertible & Income Fund (NASD:CCD) Seasonal Chart
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (NASD:SWBI) Seasonal Chart
Expeditors Intl of Washington, Inc. (NYSE:EXPD) Seasonal Chart
Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX) Seasonal Chart
Century Communities, Inc. (NYSE:CCS) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mixed on Friday as technology took a breather following a disappointing earnings report from Intel (INTC). The S&P 500 Index ended the day lower by around a tenth of one percent, holding within close proximity of the 4900 target that had been implied from the breakout from the consolidation range that was charted at the start of the year. The benchmark remains around 100 points below the psychologically important hurdle at 5000, a level that may act as a magnet so long as conversation about record highs and the milestone proliferates among the general public. The large-cap benchmark remains overbought with the Relative Strength Index above 70, threatening to exhaust buying pressures in the near-term. Characteristics of a bullish trend over an intermediate-term timeframe persist with momentum indicators above their middle lines. The technicals remain in a position such that there is nothing to change about our positive (Accumulate) view of the benchmark and our focus in terms of positioning is whether or not rotation will materialize to present better opportunities out there. For now, the US large-cap market remains the place to be, along with selected emerging markets (see our chart books), but we would certainly welcome a broadening of the rally to find new ships to sail, such as small-caps, equal-weight, and value.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Visa Spending Momentum Index
- Consumer and Business loan activity
- Google searches for the term “recession”
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.91.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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