Stock Market Outlook for February 13, 2024
Stocks are vulnerable to the normal weakness that plays out through the back half of February.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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OptimizeRx Corp. (NASD:OPRX) Seasonal Chart
Xtrackers MSCI Eurozone Hedged Equity ETF (AMEX:DBEZ) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P World ex-US ETF (AMEX:SPDW) Seasonal Chart
Invesco International Dividend Achievers ETF (NASD:PID) Seasonal Chart
Exelon Corp. (NASD:EXC) Seasonal Chart
SBA Communications Corp. (NASD:SBAC) Seasonal Chart
Genpact Ltd. (NYSE:G) Seasonal Chart
Masonite Intl Corp. (NYSE:DOOR) Seasonal Chart
Pearson PLC (NYSE:PSO) Seasonal Chart
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:PBH) Seasonal Chart
NetEase.com, Inc. (NASD:NTES) Seasonal Chart
Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE:TAP) Seasonal Chart
Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed fairly mixed on Monday as hints of upside exhaustion emerge in the much loved growth trade. The S&P 500 Index closed down by just less than one-tenth of one percent, erasing the gain that was recorded intraday above the psychologically important 5,000 level. The indecision candlestick at these record heights speaks to trader scrutiny over valuations that have become stretched following the bull market run since last October’s low. Support remains well defined at the rising 20-day moving average (4899) with the 50-day average (4779) in a position of a backstop should the shorter-term hurdle fail. Intermediate-term, characteristics of a bullish trend remain with moving averages rising above one another and momentum indicators holding above their middle lines. The back half of February is the logical time to see a short-term digestive move that Monday’s candlestick is starting to hint of; the large-cap benchmark has shed an average of two-thirds of one percent in the back half of the month with 56% of periods showing declines over the past five decades. As we have stated in previous reports, this seems like a reasonable bet to see this trade-down through the weeks ahead as stocks take a breather.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- High probability of realizing a pullback of some of the recent leaders in the equity market
- The change that we are making in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- Our weekly chart books update, along will our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
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- Currencies
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- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.04.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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