Stock Market Outlook for March 4, 2024
Commodity prices are on the move, aligned with seasonal norms heading into the spring.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Savaria Corp. (TSE:SIS.TO) Seasonal Chart
PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PRG) Seasonal Chart
Tech Achievers Growth & Income Fund (TSE:HTA.TO) Seasonal Chart
Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (TSXV:AEMC.V) Seasonal Chart
Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust (OTCMKT:ETCG) Seasonal Chart
Immatics N.V. (NASD:IMTX) Seasonal Chart
Pacer WealthShield ETF (AMEX:PWS) Seasonal Chart
ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Financials ETF (AMEX:SPXN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks rallied on Friday as start of the month inflows saw investors reaching back towards their technology darlings that had taken a breather in recent days/weeks. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by eight-tenths of one percent, charting a fresh all-time intraday and closing high. Gap support between 4983 and 5038 remains unfilled, a zone that is aligning with variable short-term support at the rising 20-day moving average. The benchmark is seen grinding higher, not showing the swings that would normally be seen in an intermediate-term rising path as investors begrudgingly buy the all-time peaks. This has resulted in negative divergences with respect to MACD and RSI, highlighting the lack of enthusiasm around these heights. The position of momentum indicators and the slope of moving averages continue to provide characteristics of an intermediate-term bullish trend and, while a short-term pullback remains likely before the quarter comes to an end, the longer-term rising trajectory of stocks is expected to remain intact through the tail-end to the best six months of the year timeframe for stocks that peaks in May.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Treasury bond ETFs curling higher from support at moving averages
- The jump in the price of oil from support
- A look at the state of energy supply and demand in the US
- Gold showing new life
- The action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- Uranium
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for March 4
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.97.
Just released…
Our monthly report for March is out, providing you with everything you need to know to navigate the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of March
- Dollar, Yields, and Stocks
- Short-term bond prices rolling over, presenting a near-term headwind to the growth trade as yields push higher
- Net Assets on the Fed’s Balance Sheet
- Consumer Prices
- Market stealthily pricing in inflationary pressures
- REITs
- Growth may be flourishing, but Equal Weight and Small Caps are starting to break out
- Banks
- Emerging Markets
- Gold and Silver hanging in, but their periods of seasonal strength are coming to an end
- Existing Home Sales
- Visa Spending Momentum Index
- Retail Sales
- Consumers becoming more discerning, but there are more of them
- Consumer and Business Loan Activity
- Business/Manufacturer sentiment
- Volatility typically peaks by the middle of March
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of March
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in March
Subscribers can look for this 115-page report in their inbox and in the report archive.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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