Stock Market Outlook for March 8, 2024
The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has reached one of the most overbought levels on record, but there is still no indication to step back from our prolonged view to Accumulate the industry fund.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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ProShares Ultra Consumer Goods (NYSE:UGE) Seasonal Chart
Fidelity Momentum Factor ETF (AMEX:FDMO) Seasonal Chart
Motley Fool 100 Index ETF (AMEX:TMFC) Seasonal Chart
Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE:DVN) Seasonal Chart
H. B. Fuller Co. (NYSE:FUL) Seasonal Chart
Reaves Utility Income Trust (AMEX:UTG) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE:XOP) Seasonal Chart
Ovintiv Inc (TSE:OVV.TO) Seasonal Chart
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The Markets
Stocks rallied on Thursday as investors digested comments from central bank leaders, who have provided indication that they are close to the end in their inflation fight. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just over one percent to end at 5157, setting yet another record high as the relentless grind higher continues. Short-term support persists at the rising 20-day moving average (5054) while upside gap support between 4983 and 5038 remains unfilled. Those negative momentum divergences on the chart with respect to MACD and RSI have yet to go away, indicating waning buying demand around these record heights, but this has yet to entice market participants to sell. Moving averages continue to move higher above one another and momentum indicators remain above their middle lines, both characteristics of an intermediate-term bullish path. Next up to act as a catalyst for the market is the monthly employment report slated to be released on Friday, an event that will either confirm or deny the recent rollover of yields and the dollar that have put fuel in the tank for the continuation of the bullish trend for stocks.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Lack of normalization of the yield curve
- The parabolic rise in the Semiconductor ETF
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- What to expect from the monthly payroll report
- Natural Gas
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for March 8
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.97.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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