Stock Market Outlook for March 11, 2024
A significant doji candlestick on the weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index is indicative of investor indecision as buying exhaustion sets in.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Dyadic International Inc. (NASD:DYAI) Seasonal Chart
SPDR Russell 1000 Momentum Focus ETF (AMEX:ONEO) Seasonal Chart
Calavo Growers, Inc. (NASD:CVGW) Seasonal Chart
ImmunoGen, Inc. (NASD:IMGN) Seasonal Chart
Five9 Inc. (NASD:FIVN) Seasonal Chart
ProShares Ultra Health Care (NYSE:RXL) Seasonal Chart
Nuveen ESG Large-Cap Growth ETF (AMEX:NULG) Seasonal Chart
Funko, Inc. (NASD:FNKO) Seasonal Chart
Dropbox, Inc. (NASD:DBX) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks reversed early gains on Friday as investors digested the results of the non-farm payroll report for February. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by around two-thirds of one percent, recording an engulfing candlestick of the prior session’s range. This candlestick pattern is typically a bearish mark and a hint of a peak within a rising short to intermediate-term trend as buying demand becomes exhausted. Add the setup to evidence of upside exhaustion being portrayed by momentum indicators, there is a heightened level of vulnerability to the benchmark in the near-term. Short-term support for the benchmark remains apparent at the rising 20-day moving average (5060) and gap support between 4983 and 5038 remains unfilled, providing two points in the near vicinity that are in a position to catch the market should it stumble into the end of the first quarter. The grind higher in prices being portrayed on the daily chart is indicative of reluctant buying as traders simply invest in order to be exposed to the relentless rising trend as opposed to buying for any perceived value opportunity. This buying demand can turn off in an instant as traders wait for more appealing levels to become exposed. There is still a skew in the near-term risk-reward to the market, but buying any dips to play the tail-end to the best six month of the year timeframe for stocks that peaks in May looks to be prudent.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- US Employment Situation and the investment themes that stand out in the payroll report
- The above average trend of wages and the inflationary impact
- Canada Labour Force Survey
- Record setting population growth
- The rise in Unemployment
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.93.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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