April continues the positivity for stocks with the S&P 500 Index gaining an average of 1.9% with an impressive 80% of periods over the past two decades showing a positive result.

Stock Market Outlook for April 1, 2024

April continues the positivity for stocks with the S&P 500 Index gaining an average of 1.9% with an impressive 80% of periods over the past two decades showing a positive result.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Rafael Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:RFL) Seasonal Chart

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (AMEX:OBE) Seasonal Chart

Principal Healthcare Innovators Index ETF (NASD:BTEC) Seasonal Chart

Global Healthcare Income & Growth ETF (TSE:HIG.TO) Seasonal Chart

Gamehost Inc. (TSE:GH.TO) Seasonal Chart

Vermilion Energy Inc. (TSE:VET.TO) Seasonal Chart

United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSE:UGA) Seasonal Chart

Enerplus Corp. (NYSE:ERF) Seasonal Chart

Boise Cascade Co. (NYSE:BCC) Seasonal Chart

Silicon Motion Technology Corp. ADS (NASD:SIMO) Seasonal Chart

Keyera Corp (TSE:KEY.TO) Seasonal Chart

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:OXY) Seasonal Chart

Logitech Intl S.A. (NASD:LOGI) Seasonal Chart

SL Green Realty Corp. (NYSE:SLG) Seasonal Chart

Note: Markets are closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday. Our next report will be released on Monday. Enjoy the long weekend!

The Markets

Stocks drifted slightly higher on Thursday to close out the week, month, and quarter on a positive note. The S&P 500 Index ended with a gain of just over one-tenth of one percent after intersecting with the all-time intraday high that was charted a week ago at 5261. A minor point of resistance at this hurdle has become implied heading into the new quarter. Support for the benchmark remains solid at the rising 20-day moving average (5170), a variable hurdle that has supported the grind higher through the first quarter. Characteristics of a bullish trend remain firmly entrenched with moving averages expanding above one another and momentum indicators holding above their middle lines, but the negative divergences with respect to MACD and RSI expresses the lack of investor enthusiasm towards stocks at these heights. The month ahead brings upon a new round of positivity for stocks as start of the quarter fund inflows cap-off the best six month span for the equity market that began at the end of October. Rarely do we see the best six month trend show as orderly of a move higher as what has been observed since last fall, but, even with this climb, signs if excess that would contribute to an imminent peak remain absent, despite the overvaluation that is prominent.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Monthly look at the large-cap benchmark

Tendencies for stocks in the month of April

Securities that have gained or lost in every April over their trading history

Weekly Jobless Claims

Canada Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Investor Sentiment

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For the month ahead, based on the past two decades, April tends to continue the strength in equity prices as the best six month span for stocks that started at the end of October comes to an end. The S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 1.9% in the fourth month of the year with an impressive 80% of periods over the past 20 years showing a gain. Results have ranged from a decline of 8.8% in April of 2022 to a gain of 12.7% in April of 2020. We provide further insight in our just released monthly report for April. Subscribe now.

Just released…

Our monthly report for April is out, providing you with everything you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of April

US Dollar

Bond prices supported

Net Assets on the Fed’s Balance Sheet

Yield Curve

Credit spreads among the lowest levels in this post-pandemic era

Investor sentiment not yet at the point of excess

Mild winter temperatures has given economic activity a boost early in the new year

Industrial production and the presidential election

Abnormally strong February economic activity re-igniting inflationary pressures

Technology and communication prices abnormally strong

Consumer momentum seeing a boost

Retail Sales

Credit Card Debt

US Banks

Spring is the time for real estate

Medical devices and Biotechnology

Time to overweight bonds?

Housing Starts

Breadth conducive to sustained equity market strength

Traders rotating from technology to a broader basket of equity exposure

Bitcoin

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of April

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in April

Subscribers can look for this 108-page report in their inbox and, soon, in the report archive.

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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for April, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every April over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this fourth month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.24.