Stock Market Outlook for April 17, 2024
Increasingly, economic data for March is coming in weaker than average as the mild winter weather benefit from February failed to carry over to the start of the spring season.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Sun Communities, Inc. (NYSE:SUI) Seasonal Chart
Digital Ally Inc. (NASD:DGLY) Seasonal Chart
Republic Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:RBCAA) Seasonal Chart
NVE Corp. (NASD:NVEC) Seasonal Chart
Etho Climate Leadership US ETF (AMEX:ETHO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks struggled to get off the floor on Tuesday as rising interest rates and a stronger US Dollar kept traders skittish of putting new money to work. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by two-tenths of one percent, charting a bit of a doji indecision candlestick below the 50-day moving average, which was broken as support in the previous session. Our eyes remain on February’s upside gap between 4983 and 5038 as the next zone of support. Momentum indicators continue to move below their middle lines, losing the characteristics of a bullish trend that appeared so enticing just weeks ago. The negative divergence of RSI and MACD that has been charted over the past couple of months had alluded to the waning enthusiasm of investors towards stocks at the recent market heights and here we find ourselves in a pullback that is shaking out loose hands. Fortunately, with cash that remains on the sidelines, thereby providing fuel for the sustainability of the rising intermediate-term trend of stocks, there will be traders willing to step in to buy the dip, when they are ready. The health of the prevailing trend is never decided by the initial rollover of prices, but rather is always proven by the strength of the rebound, either keeping the path of higher-highs and higher-lows alive or changing the trajectory to that of lower-highs and lower-lows. We are still a far ways off from the latter and seeking evidence of near-term selling exhaustion will be appropriate to know when to step in to take advantage of the potential rebound that is waiting in the wings. Levels of support below the market remain plentiful while levels of resistance remain few, giving the bias over the intermediate-term to a bullish view.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Signs of upside exhaustion in the commodity trades that have surged this month
- US Retail Sales and the more discerning consumer mentality that is becoming apparent
- The change in retailer inventories
- US Housing Starts
- How to play the optimism that home builders are expressing
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.77.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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