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Stock Market Outlook for June 4, 2024

Software and semiconductors are book-ending the performance of the technology sector. What could act as the tie breaker to sector performance is the computer hardware industry (eg. Apple), which is presently pressuring significant resistance.

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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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James River Group Holdings, Ltd. (NASD:JRVR) Seasonal Chart

James River Group Holdings, Ltd. (NASD:JRVR) Seasonal Chart

Juggernaut Exploration Ltd. (TSXV:JUGR.V) Seasonal Chart

Juggernaut Exploration Ltd. (TSXV:JUGR.V) Seasonal Chart



The Markets

Stocks closed mixed as a concerning read of manufacturing in the US has traders once again pressuring core-cyclical sectors of the market lower.  The S&P 500 Index ended higher by just over a tenth of one percent, holding above the recently tested level of support at the 50-day moving average (5181).  A topping setup continues to evolve around the March high as the the recently charted peak fails to receive confirmation from momentum indicators that have been negatively diverging from price for months.  Through the seasonally negative month of June, stocks are at risk of breaking below their April lows and realizing a violation of moving average support at the 100-day moving average.  A breakdown of the April low would present a downside target to levels around the 200-day moving average, now at 4778The price action in the market is not providing much reason to be aggressive in stocks over the near-term and waiting for the better setup to increase risk (equity) exposure around the end of June (ahead of the summer rally period) appears to be appropriate.  Mitigating risk exposure in portfolios through the next few weeks is presently viewed to be the prudent course of action.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Bonds capturing a bid
  • Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to Accumulate or Avoid
  • The Computer Hardware industry

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for June 4

Not signed up yet?  Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.

Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell?  Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market.  Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.

Subscribe now.

Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.


Just released…

Our monthly report for June is out, providing you with everything you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of June
  • Market has become risk averse
  • Down with Value/Core-cyclicals and up with Growth (Technology)
  • VIX triggering a Sell Signal according to our 12-21 approach
  • The Decline of Market Liquidity
  • US Dollar
  • April change in new home sales the third weakest on record and now home building stocks are in trouble
  • Cost of borrowing taking a toll on consumer loan activity
  • Are consumer using the equity in their homes to consolidate their high cost credit card debt?
  • Industrial Production
  • The role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in industrial activity
  • Defense still in a position to defend your portfolio this summer
  • The breadth of manufacturing activity not providing the enthusiasm to businesses that is typically seen in the spring
  • Struggling shipping activity still providing a leading indication of a recession
  • Below average trends of grocery store and restaurant sales profiling a more discerning consumer
  • Discerning consumer resulting in poor spending momentum
  • The first of the weakest two-week spans of the year in the equity market
  • Election Year tendency for stocks
  • Relative trend of bonds over stocks at a point that may warrant overweighting the former in portfolios
  • Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector Reviews and Ratings
  • Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of June
  • Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in June

Subscribers can look for this 107-page report in their inbox and in the report archive.

Not subscribed yet?  Signup now to receive access to this report and all of the research that we publish.



Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Seasonal Chart Bath & Body Works, Inc. Seasonal Chart Guidewire Software, Inc. Seasonal Chart Donaldson Company, Inc. Seasonal Chart PVH Corp. Seasonal Chart Verint Systems Inc. Seasonal Chart Designer Brands Inc. Seasonal Chart Stitch Fix, Inc. Seasonal Chart Citi Trends, Inc. Seasonal Chart Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Lakeland Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Tuniu Corporation Seasonal Chart


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