Stock Market Outlook for June 17, 2024
Visa continues to indicate that discretionary spending momentum remains very depressed for this time of year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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eBay, Inc. (NASD:EBAY) Seasonal Chart
ArcBest Corp. (NASD:ARCB) Seasonal Chart
Coherus BioSciences Inc. (NASD:CHRS) Seasonal Chart
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM) Seasonal Chart
Premium Nickel Resources Ltd. (TSXV:PNRL.V) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks slipped on Friday as the first of the weakest two-week spans for stocks gets underway. The S&P 500 Index ended with a loss of a mere four basis points (0.04%), continuing to show elevation above the 20-day moving average level that it had been grinding around in recent days. Wednesday’s upside gap between 5375 and 5409 still defines a zone of short-term support for traders to shoot against as the market enters one of the weakest periods of the year running until the 27th of June. The benchmark reached back into overbought territory in recent days, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but it has stockpiled levels of support below, including major moving averages, which are in positions to attempt to catch prices if and when a digestive period commences. Seasonal tendencies call for weakness through the next couple of weeks and, combined with the lack of market breadth, we are still unable to find reason to be aggressive in stocks in the near-term, until we get to the summer rally period just ahead of July.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Visa Spending Momentum Index
- The persistent trend of underperformance in the consumer discretionary sector and the comparison to the period prior to the Great Financial Crisis
- The struggle in core-cyclical sectors
- Gold
- Credit Spreads
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended around neutral at 0.94.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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