Stock Market Outlook for August 9, 2024
The seasonal, technical, and fundamental framework suggests gaining exposure to Natural Gas.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSE:CHE/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Insperity, Inc. (NYSE:NSP) Seasonal Chart
Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC) Seasonal Chart
LSI Industries, Inc. (NASD:LYTS) Seasonal Chart
Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (NYSE:APLE) Seasonal Chart
VitalHub Corp. (TSE:VHI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Ramaco Resources, Inc. (NASD:METC) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks mustered another rally attempt on Thursday and this time it stuck into the close after the weekly report of jobless claims calmed some nerves pertaining to the state of the labor market. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by 2.30%, reaching up to and testing implied resistance at the 100-day moving average (5310) for the third consecutive session. A test of the now declining 50-day moving average (5444) has yet to be achieved and cannot be ruled out before the next pronounced downleg is revealed. Near-term downside momentum can be seen fading, but the intermediate-term trend, which is of greatest importance to us in our seasonal approach, is under threat. The edge is still granted towards further weakness through the period of volatility for stocks that spans the third quarter. Levels around the April lows (~4960) warrant heightened scrutiny given that a break of this zone would confirm the end to the path of higher-highs and higher-lows that has been intact for the past 21 months. As we have been emphasizing, defensive assets and volatility hedges are certainly preferred at this time of year (see our list of Accumulate candidates that are showing price action conducive to adding to portfolios).
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- Natural Gas
- Wholesale Trade and what it has to say about the state of the economy
- Investor sentiment
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.19.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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