Stock Market Outlook for August 30, 2024
The recent string of outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average could become the norm if seasonality has its way.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Core MSCI Canadian Quality Dividend Index ETF (TSE:XDIV.TO) Seasonal Chart
Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta Japan Equity ETF (AMEX:GSJY) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core MSCI EAFE IMI Index ETF (CAD-Hedged) (TSE:XFH.TO) Seasonal Chart
CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASD:CSTR) Seasonal Chart
Tetra Tech Inc. (NASD:TTEK) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF (AMEX:VEGI) Seasonal Chart
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (AMEX:SCHD) Seasonal Chart
Invesco KBW Regional Banking ETF (NASD:KBWR) Seasonal Chart
BMO MSCI EAFE Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZDM.TO) Seasonal Chart
Trustmark Corp. (NASD:TRMK) Seasonal Chart
Msc Industrial Direct Co. (NYSE:MSM) Seasonal Chart
Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (NASD:PKW) Seasonal Chart
BMO Canadian High Dividend Covered Call ETF (TSE:ZWC.TO) Seasonal Chart
Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (AMEX:PAVE) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (AMEX:SPYD) Seasonal Chart
SPDR Russell 1000 Yield Focus ETF (AMEX:ONEY) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P 1500 Value Tilt ETF (AMEX:VLU) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dynamic Large Cap Value ETF (NYSE:PWV) Seasonal Chart
Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) Seasonal Chart
iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE ETF (AMEX:HEFA) Seasonal Chart
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (AMEX:DGRO) Seasonal Chart
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) Seasonal Chart
Sysco Corp. (NYSE:SYY) Seasonal Chart
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NASD:GT) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The market shook off much of the negative reaction to earnings from Artificial Intelligence (AI) darling NVDIA on Thursday and bid a broader basket of stocks higher. The S&P 500 Index closed essentially unchanged, failing to book the gain that was recorded earlier in the session and still showing signs of stall within a zone of implied resistance between 5622 and 5658, representing the July 17th downside gap. Hint of a short-term peak persists as the bulls show their reluctance adding to risk at current heights. The threat of an intermediate-term double-top pattern below the all-time high recorded during the summer rally period through the first half of July remains apparent, a chart setup that would set the stage for the declines that are normal for stocks during the month of September. The 20 and 50-day moving averages at 5471 and 5500, respectively, provide initial points of support should a rollover around present levels commence. The zone loosely aligns with August 15th upside gap that saw these two variable hurdles broken as resistance. MACD and RSI can be seen rolling over, revealing a negative divergence versus price that highlights the waning of buying demand heading into the traditionally weak month for equity market performance in September. Caution in risk assets remains appropriate, particularly while within this period of seasonal volatility and while the fundamental backdrop appears uncertain.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the optimal holding period for the blue-chip benchmark
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- The record setting Trade Deficit that was realized in July
- Natural Gas and the seasonal trade in the commodity
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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